The tip
Dolphins to win. This is a narrow call and we rate it only a two out of five. The Dolphins have more going for them on the night, but the Roosters have enough attacking talent to win.
The reasoning
The Dolphins have won eight games in a row. They earned the week off by beating the Warriors 26-16 in Auckland in the qualifying final, where they trailed 12-8 at half-time and pulled away late. Winning that game with less than half the ball and a low completion rate shows how dangerous their attack is when they get chances.
They have also beaten the Roosters twice this season. The first was a 48-10 win in Round 15, although both sides were missing Origin players. The second was a 26-12 win in Round 26, when the Roosters were hit by injuries. Both results need some caution, but they still count for something.
The Roosters lost four games in a row late in the season, then lost narrowly to Penrith 19-12 before thrashing Cronulla 46-10 in the semi final. That was a big improvement, and Sam Walker returning from injury gives their attack more creativity. The downside is the schedule: the Roosters come into this game after back-to-back six-day turnarounds, while the Dolphins have had a full week to freshen up.
On season numbers there is little between them. The Dolphins average about 27 points a game to the Roosters’ 26, and both concede around 20. With the teams that even, home ground at Suncorp Stadium and the extra rest tip it the Dolphins’ way for us.
Main danger: If the Roosters’ attack plays like it did against Cronulla, with Walker running the game, they can beat anyone left in the competition. That is why we rate this only a two.
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Dolphins head to head, small-to-standard stake.
- Alternative: If the price on the Dolphins is too short once teams are confirmed, a small bet on the Dolphins with a small start is safer. Check the current line before publishing.
- Confirm both teams an hour before kick-off, especially Walker’s fitness.
