The tip
Fremantle Dockers at the line (take the start). Brisbane go in as favourites, but we expect a close game and Fremantle look the better value with a head start.
The reasoning
Brisbane are one win from a third straight premiership and are playing in their fourth consecutive Grand Final. Their attack has been very strong this September: they beat Adelaide 144-91 in the semi final, then outscored Hawthorn 131-122 in a wild preliminary final that Hugh McCluggage won with a late goal. That big-game experience is the main case for the Lions, and nobody should dismiss it.
The case for Fremantle is how the two teams match up. The Dockers finished on top of the ladder and won by 25 points at the Gabba when these sides met in Round 12. They did it by cutting off Brisbane’s ball movement through the corridor. Their season numbers show why. Fremantle average about 59 tackles a game to Brisbane’s 48, while Brisbane average around 109 marks to Fremantle’s 89. The Lions score most freely when they can chip the ball around uncontested, and that is exactly what Fremantle’s pressure is designed to stop. On inside 50s the two sides are close, at around 55 for Fremantle and 58 for Brisbane.
Fremantle also got here the hard way. After losing their home qualifying final, they beat Geelong 120-106 and then came from 28 points down to beat Sydney 83-71, with Hayden Young’s goal on the three-quarter-time siren turning the game. Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw won the contested ball that night, and they will need to do it again.
The key team news is Lachie Neale. He received a one-match suspension for striking Jack Ginnivan in the preliminary final, and Brisbane are appealing on Thursday. Reviewer: check the appeal result before publishing. If Neale is out, Brisbane lose one of their best stoppage players, which strengthens the Fremantle case. If he plays, we still expect a close game but would lower our confidence.
The main danger is that Brisbane get the game open early. If their marking game gets going as it did against Hawthorn, they can score quickly and the start will not be enough.
Brisbane have won three of the past five meetings, but none of those were at the MCG. The bigger ground is a new test for both sides.
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Fremantle at the line, standard stake. Confirm the current start before publishing, because the line will move on the Neale decision.
- Optional: A small head-to-head bet on Fremantle for anyone who thinks their pressure can win the game outright.
- We are leaving the total points market alone. Brisbane’s recent scoring and Fremantle’s pressure pull in opposite directions, so we don’t have a strong view on it.
