The tip
Panthers to win by 1-12. Penrith are clearly the better team, but Newcastle’s defence in the finals suggests this will be closer than the line suggests.
The reasoning
Penrith are the minor premiers and are playing in their seventh straight preliminary final. They earned the week off with a 19-12 qualifying final win over the Roosters. They have the best defence in the competition, conceding about 15 points a game compared with Newcastle’s 25. They also complete sets at around 81 per cent to the Knights’ 77, which gives them more possession and more field position. We expect Penrith to win.
The question is by how much. Newcastle have won two elimination finals, beating South Sydney 20-10 and then the Warriors 12-10 at Eden Park. Both opponents were held to ten points, which is a big change from a Knights side that conceded 44 and 46 points in back-to-back games just before the finals. The team that leaked points in August is defending much better now.
Newcastle also make slightly more line breaks per game than Penrith, about 6.2 to 5.9. That means they can score enough to keep the game close, even if they cannot win it.
Main danger: Penrith won by 32 in Newcastle in April, and when this team pulls away it can win by a lot. A blowout wins the head-to-head but loses this bet, which is why the confidence is only two. The Knights winning outright is the other risk, but we rate that less likely.
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Panthers 1-12, small stake. This margin band usually pays much better than the Penrith head-to-head.
- For multis: The Penrith head-to-head is a reasonable leg, but on its own the price is too short to bet.
- Check the final team lists an hour before kick-off.
