Futures prices move. The prices below were taken on Sat, 10 Oct 2026 and may have changed, so check the current price with your bookmaker before you bet.
The NBA season is about to start, and the futures markets are the best way to get on early. This guide puts every major market in one place: the championship, MVP and the five main awards, with the prices, the trends that matter and where we see the value.
A note on the prices. The championship and Rookie of the Year numbers come from the US prediction market Polymarket, and we have converted the probabilities into decimal prices. The MVP prices are US sportsbook opening odds converted to decimal. Australian bookmakers will quote different numbers, so treat all of these as a guide and check your own bookmaker.
Our best bets at a glance
| Market | Our pick | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Championship | San Antonio Spurs | $4.35 |
| MVP | Victor Wembanyama | $2.94 |
| Rookie of the Year | Cameron Boozer | $4.35 |
| Most Improved Player | Brandon Miller | No market yet |
| Defensive Player of the Year | Victor Wembanyama | No market yet |
| Coach of the Year | No market yet | - |
| Clutch Player of the Year | Jalen Brunson | No market yet |
NBA championship
The Knicks are the defending champions after beating the Spurs 4-1 in the 2026 Finals, but the market has San Antonio as the 23 per cent favourite, with Oklahoma City next at 19 per cent.
| Team | Chance | Price |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 23% | $4.35 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 19% | $5.26 |
| New York Knicks | 13% | $7.69 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 11% | $9.09 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 5% | $20.00 |
| Boston Celtics | 5% | $20.00 |
| Miami Heat | 3% | $33.33 |
| Denver Nuggets | 3% | $33.33 |
| Detroit Pistons | 3% | $33.33 |
| Toronto Raptors | 3% | $33.33 |
Adding LeBron James to the 76ers took them to about 11 per cent, and there has been little movement since. San Antonio went from 22 to 23 per cent between 1 August and 1 October, and Oklahoma City slipped from 20 to 19.
What the trends say:
- The NBA has had eight different champions in eight years, the longest streak of its kind since the late 1970s. That works against a Knicks repeat at $7.69.
- 23 of the last 26 champions finished in the top 10 for defensive rating, and 24 of the last 26 were top five in either offensive or defensive efficiency.
- Since 2019, nearly every champion has been led by a non-US superstar or a team built on international depth.
Our pick: the Spurs at $4.35. They have the shortest price for good reason. They have the favourite for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in Wembanyama, they have just made the Finals, and the champion trends all point to elite defence and a standout international player. Oklahoma City at $5.26 is the closest alternative.
NBA MVP
Wembanyama opens as the favourite after another dominant season, and the market is close behind him with the reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic.
| Player | Opening price |
|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | $2.94 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | $5.88 |
| Luka Doncic | $6.25 |
| Nikola Jokic | $7.69 |
| Jayson Tatum | $14.29 |
| Anthony Edwards | $16.67 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $20.00 |
| Jalen Brunson | $20.00 |
| Cade Cunningham | $25.00 |
| Jaylen Brown | $50.00 |
What the trends say:
- Only seven MVPs since 1985 have come from a team that finished outside the top two in its conference, so back players on elite teams.
- No rookie has won since 1969, and only two winners have been 22 or younger.
- Centres have won four of the last six MVPs, after a two-decade drought.
- Gilgeous-Alexander has won back-to-back MVPs and would be the first player since Larry Bird to win three in a row.
Our pick: Wembanyama at $2.94. A centre on one of the best teams in the league ticks the trend boxes, and he heads a very strong field. The price is short, so if you want a bigger return, Jokic at $7.69 is the value alternative given centres’ recent record.
Rookie of the Year
This is a wide-open race, and the market has three players within a couple of points of each other.
| Player | Chance | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 23% | $4.35 |
| Cameron Boozer | 23% | $4.35 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 21% | $4.76 |
| Darryn Peterson | 17% | $5.88 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 5% | $20.00 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 3% | $33.33 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 2% | $50.00 |
| Labaron Philon Jr. | 2% | $50.00 |
Wilson has been the big mover, from 7 per cent after the draft to 23 per cent on the back of a strong Summer League, where he averaged 23.5 points in under 28 minutes. Boozer has a clear path to a big role at Memphis, with Ja Morant traded to Portland and Jaren Jackson Jr. moved last season. Dybantsa was the first pick, but he has to share the ball in Washington with Trae Young, Anthony Davis and Alex Sarr.
What the trends say: the winner has come from the first five picks in nine of the last ten seasons, and the only lottery outsider this century was Malcolm Brogdon.
Our pick: Boozer at $4.35. With the same price as Wilson, we prefer the player with the clearest usage at his new team.
Most Improved Player
There is no market yet, but the early favourite looks like Brandon Miller. He is entering his fourth season in Charlotte with LaMelo Ball gone to Minnesota and Kon Knueppel nursing a hamstring strain early on, so his usage could be sky-high.
Names to watch:
- Brandon Miller: the classic “make the leap to All-Star” profile.
- Ty Jerome: very efficient last season over only 15 games, with minutes and usage opening up in Memphis after the Morant trade.
- Dylan Harper: likely to be a short price, but second-year players almost never win, and the last was Monta Ellis in 2006-07.
What the trends say: nine of the last ten winners averaged 20 or more points a game, and no true centre has won since Jermaine O’Neal in 2002. The award also rewards long shots: last year’s winner, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, began the season at a 0.5 per cent chance.
Our pick: Miller, once a market opens. We would not touch Harper at a short price.
Defensive Player of the Year
Wembanyama is the reigning winner and should be a big favourite when the market opens. His case comes down to whether he plays 65 games, the minimum for eligibility, particularly with San Antonio coming off a long season to the Finals.
- Victor Wembanyama: has averaged more than three blocks a game in each of his first three seasons.
- Chet Holmgren: the closest challenger, but his career high for blocks is 2.3, and he realistically needs Wembanyama to miss the 65-game mark.
- Ausar Thompson: tied for the league lead in steals at 2.0 a game last season on just 26 minutes, and he could lead the league again if his minutes pass 30.
What the trends say: big men have dominated, with 19 of the last 22 winners centres or power forwards, and no winner’s team has ever missed the playoffs.
Our pick: Wembanyama, on the proviso that he is healthy. The 65-game threshold is the only real risk. If you want to hedge it, Thompson is the smart long shot.
Coach of the Year
There is no market yet. Joe Mazzulla won last season after Boston went 56-26, mostly without Jayson Tatum, beating Detroit’s JB Bickerstaff and Phoenix’s Jordan Ott.
What the trends say:
- No coach has ever won the award in back-to-back seasons, so Mazzulla is out of the picture.
- No rookie head coach has won since Doc Rivers in 2000.
- Four coaches have won it more than once since 2009, so experience helps.
What to look for: the winner is usually the coach of a team that clearly outperforms expectations, so we will look for a side that wins well above its preseason price. Check back as the markets open.
Clutch Player of the Year
There is no market yet, but the formula is simple: lead the league in clutch points and you will usually win. Since the award began in 2023 the winner has led the league in clutch points in three of four years.
- Jalen Brunson: won the award in 2024-25 and has led the NBA in clutch points over the last three playoffs, 59 points clear of second-placed Gilgeous-Alexander. The Knicks’ roster and coaching staff are unchanged.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: last year’s winner with 175 clutch points, the most in the league.
- Nikola Jokic: third in clutch points last season with 155, but he now shares clutch minutes with Jamal Murray and the newly arrived DeMar DeRozan.
- Luka Doncic: should be a favourite now that LeBron James has gone, and he is the clear first option for the Lakers late in games.
Our pick: Brunson. His playoff record is the best of the group, and nothing about his role has changed.
How we’d play it
- Now: the championship and MVP markets are open, so those are the bets you can place today. The Spurs at $4.35 and Wembanyama at $2.94 are the headline picks, but both are short.
- Value: Jokic for MVP at $7.69, and Boozer for Rookie of the Year at $4.35 are the best prices we have.
- Wait for the markets: Most Improved Player, Defensive Player, Coach of the Year and Clutch Player of the Year had no prices when we wrote this. We will update this guide as they open.