Ballarat races on the Monday before the Melbourne Cup with an eight-race card on a Soft 5 track, starting at 1:30pm. It is a mostly maiden and Benchmark 62 program, so expect some volatile betting on the first starters. Star Je Taime (Race 1), Daynes Dahwun (Race 6) and Blue Valentine (Race 8) have been scratched.
Our best bet is Celestial Splendor in Race 5. Chandler in Race 2 is the most likely winner on the card, but at his short price he is better used in multis than as a stand-alone bet.
Race 1 - Manhari 3YO Maiden Plate (1600m)
Selection: Franked Up Current odds: $2.25
Franked Up is a Frankel colt making his debut for Tony and Calvin McEvoy, and the market says he is ready to go first time out. With the favoured Star Je Taime scratched, this is a weak maiden, and the stable’s first starter rates the one to beat. Bella Athena is another well-bred debutant from a strong yard. Whitebait was well beaten here last time but should go forward and race handy. Noble Fox improves from his debut.
Selections:
- Franked Up - $2.25
- Bella Athena - $4.60
- Whitebait - $7.50
- Noble Fox - $12.00
Race 2 - AC Accounting Maiden Plate (1000m)
Selection: Chandler Current odds: $1.45
Chandler ran a good second as favourite on debut at Cranbourne and should be sharper with that run under his belt. He looks the most likely winner of the day. The price is short, so he suits a multi leg better than a straight bet. Weeping Wonder (Jerome Hunter) draws well and has Craig Newitt aboard for his debut. Swiss Impact is another McEvoy first starter. Locard is a long-priced each-way option.
Selections:
- Chandler - $1.45
- Weeping Wonder - $4.20
- Swiss Impact - $4.60
- Locard - $21.00
Race 3 - Emerging Stars Series Heat 5 (1200m)
Selection: Bella Blaze Current odds: $4.60
Bella Blaze ran on well for second first-up at Bendigo and should improve again for Michelle Payne. She is the most reliable form runner in a race where the form looks likely to hold up. Hells Gates is a McEvoy debutant at the top of the market. Overcast resumes after placing at all three career starts. Perfect Dismount draws barrier one and could lead.
Selections:
- Bella Blaze - $4.60
- Hells Gates - $3.40
- Overcast - $5.50
- Perfect Dismount - $7.50
Race 4 - Harvey Norman Ballarat Maiden Plate (1600m)
Selection: Whiskey And War Current odds: $3.50
Whiskey And War was heavily backed on debut at Horsham but missed the start badly and found clear running too late, in the same race in which Best Terms finished third. From a good gate and up to the mile, he should race closer to the speed this time, and he looks good value against the favourite. Best Terms showed early speed at Horsham and is the obvious danger. Pneuma had no luck at Geelong two back. Tempered Edge has some useful form behind him and is the each-way roughie.
Selections:
- Whiskey And War - $3.50
- Best Terms - $2.70
- Pneuma - $8.50
- Tempered Edge - $15.00
Race 5 - Hertz BM62 Handicap (1600m)
Selection: Celestial Splendor Current odds: $3.90
This is our best bet at Ballarat. Celestial Splendor missed the start first-up here but still ran well, then began cleanly and won by three lengths at Kilmore. She looks better on a firmer track, and if she reproduces that rating she will be hard to beat. Savannah Chill has won two in a row, but the inside draw could leave her looking for a gap in a race with little pace. Diamond Eye comes out of a stronger race at Sale on a heavy track. Lady Thinkabell resumes and has placed first-up before.
Selections:
- Celestial Splendor - $3.90
- Savannah Chill - $4.20
- Diamond Eye - $5.50
- Lady Thinkabell - $6.50
Race 6 - Hygain Edge BM62 Handicap (1000m)
Selection: Wintery Current odds: $2.70
Wintery won first-up at Pakenham last preparation and has won a trial since this break, so he should be ready to go first-up again. Nordic Strike has placed in five of seven starts this preparation, including a fast-finishing third at Warrnambool, and he is the main danger. Gunz also won first-up last time and has a strong turn of foot. Kooralbyn broke his maiden at Bairnsdale and is the long shot.
Selections:
- Wintery - $2.70
- Nordic Strike - $6.00
- Gunz - $4.80
- Kooralbyn - $15.00
Race 7 - Sportsbet Race Replays BM62 Handicap (1200m)
Selection: Catwalk Icon Current odds: $2.25
Catwalk Icon draws well enough to lead or sit just off it, and his form over this trip stands up despite a soft fifth at Cranbourne. Sugar Schnapps won at Kilmore and is improving. Dirty Diana won here last start and handles the track. Azzacool has form at the distance.
Selections:
- Catwalk Icon - $2.25
- Sugar Schnapps - $5.00
- Dirty Diana - $5.50
- Azzacool - $4.40
Race 8 - Hygain Edge BM62 Handicap (1400m)
Selection: Belcony Current odds: $3.90
Belcony was just beaten after leading at Sale and now draws the rail, with blinkers on for the first time. That combination should keep him travelling up front. With Blue Valentine scratched, the race looks more open. M’Lady Rose resumes and has the speed to overcome a wide draw. Vim Vitae finished well at Bendigo. Lygon Street Luigi should improve and is the value runner.
Selections:
- Belcony - $3.90
- M’Lady Rose - $4.40
- Vim Vitae - $5.50
- Lygon Street Luigi - $10.00
