Caulfield Cup Day is the biggest Saturday of the spring so far. There are ten races, including the Group 1 Thousand Guineas and the Cup itself, and the track was rated a Good 4 when fields were released. Check scratchings on the morning, because the Cup has a full field and the emergencies are waiting.
Our most confident plays are Cavalry Girl in the Henley Homes Sprint and Private Eye in the Harry White Stakes. In the Cup, Cosmic Crusader is our pick, although barrier 17 means he is more a solid each-way bet than a standout.
Race 1 - Sportsbet Classic (2000m)
Selection: Cignetti Current odds: $7.50
Cignetti has won at Sale and placed in every other run this preparation, including a strong-finishing third at Flemington last time. He draws barrier 1 and should get a soft run, and $7.50 is a good price for a horse this consistent. Russian Rock ran on well for fifth here last time and is honest. Vallice is the favourite after running second on a heavy track at Flemington for Ciaron Maher. He is the main danger, but this is a step up in class. King Snitz broke his maiden at Warrnambool and is a longer-priced runner for exotics.
Selections:
- Cignetti - $7.50
- Russian Rock - $5.00
- Vallice - $3.30
- King Snitz - $17.00
Race 2 - Sharp EIT Solutions Ethereal Stakes (2000m)
Selection: Miss Waititi Current odds: $2.80
Miss Waititi finished fast to break her maiden at Flemington and has placed in both runs this preparation. Barrier 2 gives her the chance of a perfect trail at the 2000m. Fringilla led all the way for a big maiden win on a soft track at Geelong and comes from a strong stable, so she is the clear danger. Quick Finish won well at Caulfield last start and is a value runner at the odds. Autumn In Grinzing ran on for fourth at Flemington and drops in grade.
Selections:
- Miss Waititi - $2.80
- Fringilla - $2.90
- Quick Finish - $18.00
- Autumn In Grinzing - $17.00
Race 3 - Manhari Alinghi Stakes (1100m)
Selection: Geegees Mistruth Current odds: $2.20
Geegees Mistruth hit the line well for fifth here last start, against stronger fillies and mares. She is proven at the trip and looks the one to beat at a short price. Photograph has trialled since her last run and is better than her sixth here suggests. Signature Scent has won several times at Caulfield and is a good each-way runner. Dance To The Boom resumes after 17 weeks with a placed trial behind her and is worth including in exotics.
Selections:
- Geegees Mistruth - $2.20
- Photograph - $4.80
- Signature Scent - $6.50
- Dance To The Boom - $14.00
Race 4 - Quayclean Gothic Stakes (1400m)
Selection: Star Of Macedon Current odds: $6.00
Star Of Macedon was first-up when he won his maiden at Kilmore and has never finished out of the placings. He is still improving and looks good value against this field. I Am Aria is the favourite. He raced in a close finish here last time and should be close to the lead. Shooting Brake ran fourth at Cranbourne, draws barrier 2 and is worth a small bet at a big price. Aemond is a Freedman-trained colt who has won or placed in both starts.
Selections:
- Star Of Macedon - $6.00
- I Am Aria - $4.00
- Shooting Brake - $21.00
- Aemond - $5.00
Race 5 - Sportsbet Harry White Stakes (1400m)
Selection: Private Eye Current odds: $2.50
Private Eye is one of our better bets on the card. He has a strong record at Caulfield and has placed in two of three runs this preparation, most recently a third at Rosehill. Barrier 2 should give him a soft run. War Machine was well beaten here last time but has since won a trial and is better suited by this easier race. Here To Shock closed off well for fourth on this track. Zou Sensation also goes well at Caulfield but needs luck in the run.
Selections:
- Private Eye - $2.50
- War Machine - $3.60
- Here To Shock - $10.00
- Zou Sensation - $9.00
Race 6 - Henley Homes Sprint (1000m)
Selection: Cavalry Girl Current odds: $2.60
Cavalry Girl is our strongest bet of the day. She has won four times this campaign and placed in her other runs at metro level, and she was beaten only narrowly at Sandown last time. A short let-up should have her fresh, and her early speed suits 1000 metres at Caulfield. Bev’s Nine was third here fresh, beaten less than a length, and gets weight relief, so he is the main danger. Pallaton won first-up here and has a good record at the track. Oak Hill is first-up with Damian Lane riding, and he ran second first-up here last preparation.
Selections:
- Cavalry Girl - $2.60
- Bev’s Nine - $6.50
- Pallaton - $7.00
- Oak Hill - $8.00
Race 7 - Stow Storage Thousand Guineas (1600m)
Selection: Saintly Dancer Current odds: $4.00
The fillies’ Group 1 looks to be between three or four runners. Saintly Dancer won by six lengths at Flemington last start and has two wins from five runs this campaign. She should race close to the lead from barrier 4. Over The Bridge is unbeaten in two starts and won here last time, but the mile and the jump in class are both new for her. Regal Ambition has won her last two at Caulfield and Sandown Hillside and is the danger, although barrier 11 makes her job harder. Icelady led all the way to break her maiden here and is the best of the longer prices.
Selections:
- Saintly Dancer - $4.00
- Over The Bridge - $4.80
- Regal Ambition - $4.80
- Icelady - $13.00
Race 8 - Catanach’s Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes (1200m)
Selection: Over Excited Current odds: $3.20
Over Excited has won at Geelong and placed once this campaign. His seventh at Flemington came in a stronger race than this, and he can bounce back. Doubt Time ran fifth at Flemington in a stronger race and finishes well. Threads is looking for a third straight win after victories at Caulfield and Kensington. Jarbardar has won or placed in all three starts and was beaten less than a length here first-up, so he is the value runner.
Selections:
- Over Excited - $3.20
- Doubt Time - $4.80
- Threads - $8.50
- Jarbardar - $12.00
Race 9 - Sportsbet Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Selection: Cosmic Crusader Current odds: $5.00
The Cup has a capacity field but not much early speed, and Royal Supremacy looks the most likely leader. Cosmic Crusader is the form horse. He has won three times this campaign and placed in his other runs at metro level, and his Turnbull Stakes win on a heavy Flemington track was strong. William Pike rides. His only negative is barrier 17, which could leave him further back than ideal if the pace is slow. That is why we see him as a sound each-way bet rather than a near-certainty.
Wine Dark Sea is the international to respect. He won three of his last four starts in Britain, including the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes over 2671m with 61kg, and drops to 54.5kg here. Barrier 19 is his problem too, but Damian Lane knows Caulfield very well. Half Yours should be fitter for his recent runs, and Zahrann gets a big weight drop after a poor run at Flemington on a heavy track.
Selections:
- Cosmic Crusader - $5.00
- Wine Dark Sea - $8.50
- Half Yours - $13.00
- Zahrann - $8.00
Race 10 - Nationwide Tristarc Stakes (1400m)
Selection: Shadhavar Current odds: $5.50
Shadhavar has won at Caulfield and ran second at Murray Bridge last start. She drops in weight, has early speed and has Craig Williams riding, so she looks good value. Concord Connie is the favourite. She was narrowly beaten when heavily backed first-up at Mornington on a soft track, has never missed a place and is the main danger. Gold Medallist ran on well for second at Flemington on a heavy track. Merrigold backs up quickly and can run a place.
Selections:
- Shadhavar - $5.50
- Concord Connie - $2.60
- Gold Medallist - $8.00
- Merrigold - $8.50
