With the Cox Plate at Flemington this year, the Moonee Valley club holds its Friday night meeting at Cranbourne. There are eight races from 6:15pm, and the track is a Good 4.
There are some dual acceptances to watch. Angels Fury (Race 1) is also entered at Flemington on Saturday, and Fovea (Race 1) is also entered at Gosford on Thursday, so the opening race could look quite different once scratchings are in.
Cashout in Race 4 is the most likely winner on the card, but his price is very short. Our main bet is Run Harry Run in the Gold Star, and Headbanger is a strong chance in the 955m sprint.
Race 1 - The Valley @ Southside Cranbourne Handicap (1000m)
Selection: Angels Fury Current odds: $1.80
Angels Fury won her last two, at Bendigo and Caulfield, before a short break. She is clearly the best horse in this three-year-old race if she runs here instead of in the Crockett Stakes on Saturday. Her price is short, so treat her as a multi leg. Fovea ran second at Warwick Farm and is the main danger if she makes the trip. Myhro’s Ruler won at Echuca and placed at Seymour, and he is the each-way value. Lady Catalina has a good gate after a fifth at Caulfield.
Selections:
- Angels Fury - $1.80
- Fovea - $4.60
- Myhro’s Ruler - $8.50
- Lady Catalina - $6.00
Race 2 - Chef’s Hat Handicap (2025m)
Selection: Killenaule Current odds: $2.80
Killenaule was just beaten at Pakenham when well backed and has placed in every run this campaign. He wears blinkers for the first time, which could help him find the win. Sarapo ran second at Geelong and drops in weight, so he is the main danger. Covert Thinking comes from a good stable and is the value runner. Nothingelsematters backs up quickly after a fourth at Horsham.
Selections:
- Killenaule - $2.80
- Sarapo - $6.50
- Covert Thinking - $8.50
- Nothingelsematters - $10.00
Race 3 - McMahon’s Dairy Handicap (1400m)
Selection: Karren Current odds: $2.40
Karren won at Bendigo last start and has won or placed in all three career starts. She should race close to the lead. Bajaria has drawn well after a third at Seymour and can win if Karren does not improve. Carriedo ran third first up at Ballarat and comes from a good stable. Shystar placed first up at Pakenham and is usually better second up.
Selections:
- Karren - $2.40
- Bajaria - $4.00
- Carriedo - $4.60
- Shystar - $15.00
Race 4 - Ladbrokes Tote Win +10% In October Handicap (1400m)
Selection: Cashout Current odds: $1.70
Cashout won by three lengths at Pakenham and has won twice this campaign. He looks the standout of the night, but $1.70 is short, so he is best used in multis. Romantic Encounter ran second here last time and should lead, which makes him the main danger. Regal Tycoon goes well at Cranbourne. Mount Bona has won three in a row, but he returns from a long spell for a new trainer.
Selections:
- Cashout - $1.70
- Romantic Encounter - $4.60
- Regal Tycoon - $5.50
- Mount Bona - $41.00
Race 5 - Mittys Vobis Gold Star (1400m)
Selection: Run Harry Run Current odds: $3.70
Run Harry Run has won twice at metro level this campaign and ran a good second at Caulfield last time. He should race close to the lead and is our best bet of the night at a fair price. Ten Commandments is the favourite after a fifth at Flemington and is the danger. Regal Zeus ran third at Caulfield and Jamie Mott rides. Bossy Benita is proven at this distance.
Selections:
- Run Harry Run - $3.70
- Ten Commandments - $3.50
- Regal Zeus - $5.00
- Bossy Benita - $3.50
Race 6 - Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge (955m)
Selection: Headbanger Current odds: $2.40
Headbanger won by nearly two lengths at Pakenham, has won twice at Cranbourne and drops in weight. He is a strong chance in a short sprint. You’re Two Vain was close first up last preparation and should lead. Saluted ran third at Mornington and has been consistent. Magnabelle Royale won first up but has drawn the widest barrier, so she needs luck.
Selections:
- Headbanger - $2.40
- You’re Two Vain - $4.20
- Saluted - $6.00
- Magnabelle Royale - $19.00
Race 7 - Ladbrokes Cox Plate @ Flemington Handicap (1200m)
Selection: Esmahli Current odds: $3.20
Esmahli ran second on a heavy track at Flemington and drops in grade. The Hayes stable has her ready to win. Ladhar won at Geelong on a soft track and comes from a strong stable. Insain Harry also won at Geelong and gets a useful claim. Imperial Award is unbeaten in three starts, but she has drawn very wide.
Selections:
- Esmahli - $3.20
- Ladhar - $9.50
- Insain Harry - $8.50
- Imperial Award - $10.00
Race 8 - More From Tote With Ladbrokes Handicap (1600m)
Selection: Two Wolves Current odds: $4.00
Two Wolves won at Pakenham last start and comes from a strong stable. He is the pick in an even last race. Oceana Dream placed at Sandown before a spell and has trialled well, so she is the main danger. Makdane gets a big claim and returns from a short break. Flying Valley drops in class and should get a good position.
Selections:
- Two Wolves - $4.00
- Oceana Dream - $4.40
- Makdane - $8.00
- Flying Valley - $12.00
