The Moonee Valley Racing Club’s Cox Plate meeting moves to Flemington this year, so the nine-race card is run as “The Valley @ Flemington”. The track was a Good 4 when fields came out, but showers are forecast for Saturday and a drop into the soft range is possible. Check the track rating on race morning.
Several runners have more than one acceptance this week. Evaporate (Race 6) and Jacaranda (Race 4) are also entered at Randwick on Saturday, and Angels Fury (Race 4) is also entered at Cranbourne on Friday night. Check scratchings before betting on those races.
Our best bet on the card is True Rebel in the Vase, although his price is short. In the Cox Plate itself we side with Warwoven. The race is open, so we treat him as a solid win bet rather than a standout.
Race 1 - Manhari Imperatriz Sprint (1000m)
Selection: Ice Kool Current odds: $2.30
Ice Kool won last start at Warwick Farm and has won three of five this campaign at metro level. He has the early speed to hold a good spot down the straight. Bred ‘Em All is the main danger. He won first up at Morphettville and Craig Williams rides for the Jolly stable. Spywire has drawn barrier 1 and should be fitter for her last run, and Point And Shoot can run well fresh. She won first up last preparation.
Selections:
- Ice Kool - $2.30
- Bred ‘Em All - $4.40
- Spywire - $5.00
- Point And Shoot - $5.50
Race 2 - HKJC World Pool Red Anchor Stakes (1200m)
Selection: Barracks Current odds: $4.20
Barracks won first up this preparation and ran a close second at Caulfield last time, so he has the best recent form in the field. He backs up quickly, but he looks fit and the race suits him. The Speed Machine is the value runner. He was only just beaten at Pakenham and Blake Shinn rides well for this stable. Valaroso broke his maiden at Seymour on a soft track and would like any rain. Buggsy can improve on his sixth here.
Selections:
- Barracks - $4.20
- The Speed Machine - $16.00
- Valaroso - $5.00
- Buggsy - $5.50
Race 3 - Drummond Golf Vase (2040m)
Selection: True Rebel Current odds: $2.20
True Rebel has run first, second or third in all three starts this campaign. He was close to winning at Caulfield last time, and the step up to 2040m should suit him. This is our most confident bet of the day, although the price is short. Joely is the main danger after a strong second here last start. Written Empire won at Bendigo and has more ability than his price suggests. Lepolo has won two of four this preparation and should race on the pace.
Selections:
- True Rebel - $2.20
- Joely - $4.60
- Written Empire - $12.00
- Lepolo - $14.00
Race 4 - Symal Crockett Stakes (1200m)
Selection: Chayan Current odds: $3.70
Chayan was sixth at Caulfield last start, but she has trialled well since and James McDonald rides. She should finish fast. Angels Fury won her last two before a spell and can win fresh, but she faces better fillies this time and may run at Cranbourne on Friday instead. Aroused won easily at Ballarat on debut and has the speed to overcome the wide gate. Jacaranda has placed often this campaign, but she also has an acceptance at Randwick.
Selections:
- Chayan - $3.70
- Angels Fury - $4.20
- Aroused - $3.80
- Jacaranda - $10.00
Race 5 - Cirka McEwen Stakes (1200m)
Selection: Jigsaw Current odds: $3.00
Jigsaw led all the way to win first up at Caulfield and is proven at 1200m. If Logan Bates gets him to lead again, he will be hard to catch. Extragalactic is the favourite after a close second at Caulfield and has James McDonald on, so he is the main danger. Smooth Chino has run two good placings this preparation, including a short-margin second on a heavy track here, and should be in the finish. Rey Magnerio finished well for fifth last start.
Selections:
- Jigsaw - $3.00
- Extragalactic - $2.60
- Smooth Chino - $6.50
- Rey Magnerio - $8.00
Race 6 - Kia Ora Stud Mile (1600m)
Selection: Surfin’ Bird Current odds: $2.65
Surfin’ Bird won last start at Caulfield and comes from a strong stable. He is the clear pick in a field where several of the other leading chances have something to prove. Buckaroo drops back to a mile after a poor run here and has James McDonald on. Evaporate won at Sandown three runs back but has another acceptance at Randwick, so check whether he runs here. On Display ran fourth at Caulfield and can run into a place.
Selections:
- Surfin’ Bird - $2.65
- Buckaroo - $7.50
- Evaporate - $8.50
- On Display - $14.00
Race 7 - Ladbrokes Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m)
Selection: Point Of Law Current odds: $8.50
Point Of Law is first up for a new trainer, but he won at Newmarket last start and has a good record. At $8.50 he is our each-way bet in an even race. Juja Kibo is the favourite. He won last start at Randwick and has placed in all three runs this campaign. Pinhole has won his last two, at Caulfield and Rosehill, and has to be respected. Aethelwulf ran second at Randwick and has the speed to hold a good spot from the wide draw.
Selections:
- Point Of Law - $8.50
- Juja Kibo - $5.50
- Pinhole - $6.00
- Aethelwulf - $6.00
Race 8 - Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040m)
Selection: Warwoven Current odds: $4.40
There are twelve runners in the Cox Plate, and there is plenty of speed drawn wide, so the pace should be strong. Warwoven has won the Golden Rose and the Caulfield Guineas and comes in with three straight wins. As a three-year-old he carries only 49.5kg, and from barrier 2 he should get a good run behind the speed. The trip is a small query, but his dam won a Group 2 over this distance in New Zealand, and his ratings already put him in this class.
Sir Delius is the favourite, but he has not looked as sharp this preparation, and we are happy to bet against him at his price. Aeliana is the danger we respect most. She has strong ratings and James McDonald rides. Ceolwulf placed at Randwick last week, but the mile may suit him better. Cosmic Crusader ran in the Caulfield Cup and is dropping back in trip. Light Infantry Man is the roughie. He handles the track and distance and will get a good run behind a fast pace.
Selections:
- Warwoven - $4.40
- Aeliana - $4.60
- Sir Delius - $4.60
- Cosmic Crusader - $8.00
Race 9 - Powerflo Solutions Tesio Stakes (2040m)
Selection: Panova Current odds: $9.00
Panova ran poorly at Caulfield last start, but she drops back in grade and James McDonald rides. She has a good late sprint and is our each-way bet in an open mares’ handicap. Shockletz has won three times at Flemington and comes from the Ciaron Maher stable. Ocean Bay has won four times this campaign and is the form runner. Classic Gem drops in weight and William Pike rides, so she is worth including in exotics.
Selections:
- Panova - $9.00
- Shockletz - $9.50
- Ocean Bay - $12.00
- Classic Gem - $9.00
