The Melbourne Cup Carnival continues at Flemington on Thursday with Oaks Day, a nine-race card headlined by the Group 1 Crown Oaks over 2500m for three-year-old fillies. The program also includes the Group 3 Red Roses Stakes and two Listed races, the Chester Manifold Stakes and the Century Stakes. Gold Medallist (Race 4) and Parcae (Race 7) are scratched. Check the track rating on the morning, as weather can change quickly during Cup week.
Our best bet is Sequinned in the Red Roses. Sass Appeal (Race 4) is another short-priced runner we rate highly, Tavi Time is our value play in the Chester Manifold, and De Armas is our pick in the Oaks.
Race 1 - TCL Trophy BM70 Handicap (1700m)
Selection: Autumn Slide Current odds: $5.00
Autumn Slide finished well for second at Cranbourne first-up in a stronger race and should improve second-up with Damian Lane riding. She is the one to beat in a wide-open race. Spex has won twice and placed in every other run this campaign. Cute Girl won at Warrnambool and has three wins from seven runs this campaign, so she is a good each-way option at the price. Jenni You Think backs up quickly after a second at Bendigo.
Selections:
- Autumn Slide - $5.00
- Spex - $8.00
- Cute Girl - $13.00
- Jenni You Think - $7.00
Race 2 - Sharp EIT Subzero Handicap, BM90 for grey horses (1400m)
Selection: Youre Not The King Current odds: $2.60
Youre Not The King is unbeaten this preparation, with wins at Warwick Farm and Hawkesbury, and has drawn barrier 2. He is the clear one to beat in this race for grey horses. Alabama Fox won at Randwick and has placed at both runs this campaign, so he is the main danger. Bustling was poor at Cranbourne last start but has placed twice from three starts as favourite, and Chakado is an each-way outsider.
Selections:
- Youre Not The King - $2.60
- Alabama Fox - $4.80
- Bustling - $12.00
- Chakado - $15.00
Race 3 - Channel 9 Chester Manifold Stakes, Listed (1600m)
Selection: Tavi Time Current odds: $6.50
Tavi Time comes from the Kris Lees stable after a good third at Randwick. He has drawn barrier 1 and has James McDonald riding, so he should get a good run. He is our value play. Buccleuch is the favourite after winning at Caulfield, has three wins from four runs this campaign, has won twice at Flemington and drops in weight, so he is the obvious danger. Feroce drops back to town company, and Enxuto has a place chance.
Selections:
- Tavi Time - $6.50
- Buccleuch - $3.60
- Feroce - $8.00
- Enxuto - $8.50
Race 4 - Inglis Bracelet (1600m)
Selection: Sass Appeal Current odds: $1.75
Gold Medallist is scratched. Sass Appeal backs up five days after a fourth here and drops in grade. She has the speed to cross from the wide draw, and we rate her highly. Polymnia has been in strong form and finished well for fourth at Randwick, so she is the main danger. Fireball Miss has a good draw and drops in grade, and Cilacap has form at this distance.
Selections:
- Sass Appeal - $1.75
- Polymnia - $4.00
- Fireball Miss - $7.00
- Cilacap - $11.00
Race 5 - Sigma Trophy BM90 Handicap (1800m)
Selection: Perisher Current odds: $2.60
Perisher finished strongly to win at Rosehill and has James McDonald riding. He is the favourite and the one to beat. His stablemate Nobler ran second at Rosehill first-up and should improve, so he is the main danger and good each-way value. Veyepee has a good draw and drops in weight, and Fiorenot has strong form at Flemington.
Selections:
- Perisher - $2.60
- Nobler - $8.50
- Veyepee - $5.50
- Fiorenot - $5.25
Race 6 - Cirka Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final BM80 (1600m)
Selection: Bel Mezyaan Current odds: $6.00
Bel Mezyaan won first-up at Bendigo and backs up quickly with a strong jockey and trainer combination. He looks the value in a competitive final. Sulek won at Geelong and is improving, so he is the favourite. Our Justify is chasing a third win in a row after two Bendigo wins, and Rosa Aotearoa was beaten half a length at Bendigo last start.
Selections:
- Bel Mezyaan - $6.00
- Sulek - $5.50
- Our Justify - $6.00
- Rosa Aotearoa - $7.50
Race 7 - Crown Red Roses Stakes, Group 3 (1100m)
Selection: Sequinned Current odds: $1.95
Parcae is scratched, which removes an unbeaten rival. Sequinned has won three of four runs this campaign, including a strong win at Caulfield, and has placed in a trial since. She gets James McDonald, and this is our best bet of the day. Scintillation has a good draw and should be on the pace, so she is the main danger. Semantics is unbeaten in two runs, and Handee is coming off a strong win at Cranbourne.
Selections:
- Sequinned - $1.95
- Scintillation - $6.50
- Semantics - $16.00
- Handee - $20.00
Race 8 - Crown Oaks, Group 1 (2500m)
Selection: De Armas Current odds: $2.80
De Armas backs up five days after winning here and has drawn barrier 1, so she should get a perfect run. With James McDonald riding, she gets the nod. Proxima Dea is unbeaten this campaign with five wins from five starts and is the favourite. Her wide draw is a concern over 2500m, but she has the speed to overcome it, so she is a big danger. Icelady won at Caulfield and has placed in every other run this campaign. Quick Finish is a good-value each-way option after three wins this campaign.
Selections:
- De Armas - $2.80
- Proxima Dea - $2.60
- Icelady - $7.00
- Quick Finish - $13.00
Race 9 - G.H. Mumm Century Stakes, Listed (1000m)
Selection: Cavalry Girl Current odds: $2.30
Cavalry Girl has won five times and placed in every other start this campaign. She led all the way at Caulfield last start and has the speed to cross from the wide draw. She looks the one to beat. Rey Magnerio ran fourth here and suits the 1000m with William Pike riding. Ice Kool was narrowly beaten as favourite here last start and is good value at $9. Bev’s Nine has strong form at the distance.
Selections:
- Cavalry Girl - $2.30
- Rey Magnerio - $4.80
- Ice Kool - $9.00
- Bev’s Nine - $5.50
