The race that stops a nation is here. Flemington was rated a Good 4 in the lead-up to Cup Day, and this preview covers all ten races on the card, with the Lexus Melbourne Cup jumping at 3pm AEDT. Prices were captured the day before the meeting, so check scratchings and the final track rating before you bet. Beautiful You (Race 8) and Surf’s Up (Race 10) are already out.
Our standout of the day is Sabaj in Race 6, who drops into a much easier race and is the clear pick in a field where the rest have questions to answer. Shadhavar in Race 9 is the other strong play. In the Cup we side with Point Of Law, but with 24 runners and plenty of stayers who can win it, treat him as a sensible win bet rather than a banker.
Race 1 - Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000m)
Selection: Royal Press Current odds: $3.30
Royal Press is the only one of our top picks with race experience, and that matters in this race, with experienced two-year-olds winning six of the last seven runnings. He was just beaten as favourite on debut at Caulfield after racing on the slower part of the track, and he was back in front past the post. Amsterdam (Ciaron Maher) and Funded (Anthony and Sam Freedman) both trialled well and are the debut dangers. La La Lilly is the each-way roughie.
Selections:
- Royal Press - $3.30
- Amsterdam - $3.60
- Funded - $5.50
- La La Lilly - $8.50
Race 2 - Pin & Win Community Handicap (2000m)
Selection: Yauson Current odds: $2.90
Yauson has been in the money at all four starts this preparation, with two wins, and was only narrowly beaten last time at Caulfield. He has enough early speed to work across from the wide gate and stays the 2000m. Chispa is the main danger, a Chris Waller runner dropping into an easier race with James McDonald aboard and a good draw. Johnich won well at Caulfield last start but carries more weight here.
Selections:
- Yauson - $2.90
- Chispa - $6.50
- Johnich - $14.00
- Federer - $18.00
Race 3 - TAB One Pool Trophy (1800m)
Selection: Star Of Macedon Current odds: $3.40
Star Of Macedon won first-up this preparation before a sixth at Caulfield, and he steps up in trip for the first time here, which looks the right move. He sits at the top of the market for good reason. Fringilla drops out of stronger races at metro level and is the main danger. Mister Whiskers is unbeaten in two starts and led all the way last time, so he will be hard to run down if left alone in front. Katoto, with McDonald aboard, rounds out the top four.
Selections:
- Star Of Macedon - $3.40
- Fringilla - $5.00
- Mister Whiskers - $8.00
- Katoto - $5.50
Race 4 - The Schweppervescence Plate (1000m)
Selection: The Speed Machine Current odds: $11.00
The Speed Machine has placed at every start this campaign, including a near miss at Flemington, and he has the early speed to hold a handy spot over the straight 1000m. At double-figure odds he is our value play. Ole Go is the favourite after a strong win at Morphettville and has McDonald aboard, but he meets tougher rivals here. Parcae is unbeaten in two and trialled well. Semantics won well first-up at Bendigo.
Selections:
- The Speed Machine - $11.00
- Ole Go - $6.00
- Parcae - $11.00
- Semantics - $9.00
Race 5 - Australian Heritage Cup (2800m)
Selection: After Summer Current odds: $12.00
After Summer draws well and can sit on the speed or in the box seat, which is a big help in a 2800m race that could be run at a stop-start tempo. He failed last time here, but the drop in class and the better draw suit him. This is an open race, so we would bet him each-way. Grand Pierro backs up six days later and draws inside. Athabascan has a strong finish and drops in class. Jennivamoose has placed three times this preparation for a strong stable.
Selections:
- After Summer - $12.00
- Grand Pierro - $11.00
- Athabascan - $11.00
- Jennivamoose - $6.50
Race 6 - Asahi Super Dry Plate (1800m)
Selection: Sabaj Current odds: $2.60
This is our best bet of the day. Sabaj finished seventh at Caulfield last start but was racing in a much stronger grade, and this drop in class makes him the horse to beat. He should be strong late over the 1800m. Al Duca has two wins at Flemington and a good draw, so he will be handy. Darkbonee was just beaten when heavily backed at Caulfield, and St Lawrence has won two in a row, including here.
Selections:
- Sabaj - $2.60
- Al Duca - $9.00
- Darkbonee - $6.00
- St Lawrence - $6.25
Race 7 - Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m)
Selection: Point Of Law Current odds: $6.50
Point Of Law has won two in a row, at Newmarket and then the Geelong Cup, where he sat close to a strong tempo and still fought on strongly. The Geelong Cup has produced Melbourne Cup winners before, and he should land a good spot under Ethan Brown. His main issue is experience. This is only his sixth start, and he can be awkward before the race, so how he handles the parade in front of a huge crowd is worth watching. Trustyourinstinct is the main danger. He has strong Irish staying form, comes down in weight, and has McDonald aboard, though from a wide draw he will settle back. Juja Kibo keeps improving, as his Moonee Valley Cup win showed, though 3200m is still a query for him. Middle Earth was last year’s runner-up and has built nicely towards this, but he needs luck from gate one. Shockletz loves Flemington and gets in on a nice weight. Kizlyar is the long shot, a 4000m winner who will stay all day.
Selections:
- Point Of Law - $6.50
- Trustyourinstinct - $8.50
- Juja Kibo - $12.00
- Middle Earth - $15.00
Race 8 - Crown Amanda Elliott (1400m)
Selection: Barracks Current odds: $7.00
Barracks has placed at both starts this campaign, including a narrow loss at Caulfield last time. The field looks weaker here, and he has the speed to get across from the outside gate. Ranarsson is unbeaten in two and is the short-priced danger. Mr Natural has a win at Geelong. Harry Lime is fresh and has won two from three this campaign. With Beautiful You scratched, the race is more open.
Selections:
- Barracks - $7.00
- Ranarsson - $2.30
- Mr Natural - $5.50
- Harry Lime - $9.50
Race 9 - Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m)
Selection: Shadhavar Current odds: $3.40
Shadhavar is our second-strongest play of the day. She led and won by almost three lengths at Caulfield last start, has two wins from four this campaign, and should land a handy spot from barrier two. So You Pence was a disappointing third at Randwick but comes from a strong stable. Terilee has placed at every start this preparation. Dance To The Boom was just beaten first-up and is a good place chance.
Selections:
- Shadhavar - $3.40
- So You Pence - $5.00
- Terilee - $6.50
- Dance To The Boom - $9.50
Race 10 - Channel 9 Trophy (1400m)
Selection: Buccleuch Current odds: $4.00
Buccleuch won well at Caulfield last start, has won over this trip before, and keeps his regular rider. Fundamental Nature, with William Pike aboard, has a win at Caulfield earlier this preparation and is the each-way danger at $10. Jett Smash has the speed to work across from the wide gate. Keep Your Cool drops back into city company. Surf’s Up is a scratching.
Selections:
- Buccleuch - $4.00
- Fundamental Nature - $10.00
- Jett Smash - $7.00
- Keep Your Cool - $17.00
