The Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) jumps at 3pm AEDT on Tuesday with a full field of 24. Flemington was rated a Good 4 on Monday afternoon with the rail out 3m, but rain was forecast for Monday, with estimates ranging from a few millimetres to around 20mm. If the track drifts into the soft range, that changes the picture for a few runners, so check the final rating on Tuesday morning before you bet.
This is a deep Cup. The favourite is a genuine stayer on the rise, the best of the overseas raiders look well placed in the handicap, and two of the local lightweights have been trained for this race for months. Prices were captured on Monday afternoon and will move before the jump.
How the race should be run
There is plenty of early speed drawn wide. Wine Dark Sea, Royal Supremacy, Kizlyar and Future History can all push forward, and with several of them having to cross from out wide, we expect a genuine tempo from the start. Enfjaar and So You Are have drawn well enough to sit in the first few pairs, and Point Of Law should land just off the speed from barrier 9 without having to do the work.
Trustyourinstinct, Hopewell Rock and Shockletz are the main chances likely to be ridden quietly from wide gates. In a truly run two miles that is no disadvantage, as long as they get clear running in the straight. Middle Earth jumps from barrier 1 and will be in the back half on the fence, which means he will need some luck.
Best bet - Hopewell Rock (each way)
Selection: Hopewell Rock Current odds: $8.50
Hopewell Rock is the runner that keeps coming up in every serious assessment of this Cup, and we think he is still a fair price. He has had just 10 starts for eight wins or placings, so there is upside still to come. Two runs back he won at Goodwood carrying 61kg, beating Small Fry, a horse that has since run second in the Geelong Cup. Last start he was beaten a half head in the Ebor Handicap over 2800m at York under 60.5kg, a big-field handicap that is traditionally a strong guide to this race, on wet ground.
He drops to 54.5kg here, which is a big relief after the weights he has been carrying. The 3200m is new for him, but his last two runs suggest the extra trip will suit rather than find him out, and if the rain arrives his Ebor run shows he will handle it. Zac Lloyd rides. The only real question is whether he gets the gaps from a wide draw, which is why we are betting him each way rather than win only.
The main chances
Point Of Law ($7.50) is the horse they all have to beat. He made his Australian debut in the Geelong Cup, sat outside a hot speed and was simply too strong late. He carries just 53kg, draws barrier 9 and should get the ideal run in transit with Ethan Brown aboard. The doubts are experience and temperament: this is only his sixth career start, he still does a few things wrong, and Cup Day with a huge crowd is nothing like Geelong. A genuinely wet track is also an unknown. If he holds it together in the parade, he is the most likely winner, and he is the pick in our full Flemington preview.
Trustyourinstinct ($7.50) is the pick of the internationals. He won the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2816m two starts ago, then ran fourth in the Irish St Leger at weight-for-age against some of Europe’s best stayers. He has won over 3200m before, handles wet and dry, and James McDonald takes the ride. The draw is wide but he is a get-back horse anyway. Watch him in the mounting yard: he wears earmuffs pre-race, which hints he can get worked up.
Shockletz ($9.50) has the lightest weight of the main chances at 51kg. She won the Archer Stakes at Flemington to earn her start and has won all three of her races at 2500m, the furthest she has gone. Ciaron Maher has used a short, old-fashioned lead-up through the Tesio, and the blinkers helped last time. Barrier 17 means she needs a sensible ride early, and 3200m is still a step into the unknown.
Middle Earth ($17.00) ran third in this race last year and has been building through his campaign, with a strong late burst in the Cox Plate. The stable has had this race as his grand final for a long time. Barrier 1 and 2kg more than last year are the knocks, and he will need luck from the back half of the field, but Mark Zahra is as good a big-race rider as there is.
Others to consider
Juja Kibo has won the Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Cup this campaign and handles wet ground, though the penalties for those wins and the 3200m are questions. James J Braddock is the wildcard: third in the Epsom Derby, lightly weighted, and likely to improve sharply on a wet track, but barrier 24 is a major hurdle. Zakouma ($34.00) has had his preparation built entirely around this race and gets in with 52kg, a sensible trifecta inclusion.
For roughies, Kizlyar ($41.00) won over 4000m at Royal Ascot and will stay all day if he is ridden positively after a slowly run Moonee Valley Cup did not suit. Goodie Two Shoes ($26.00) ran second in this race last year, though she has 3.5kg more to carry this time.
Selections:
- Hopewell Rock - $8.50
- Point Of Law - $7.50
- Trustyourinstinct - $7.50
- Shockletz - $9.50
How we’d play it
Hopewell Rock each way is the main bet. If you want to back the favourite as well, a smaller win bet on Point Of Law covers the most likely winner without putting all your eggs on an inexperienced horse handling the occasion. For exotics, a boxed trifecta of Hopewell Rock, Point Of Law, Trustyourinstinct and Shockletz keeps the outlay sensible, and Middle Earth and Zakouma are the two we would add for a wider trifecta. Keep stakes in proportion: 24-runner handicaps are hard to win, even for the best-credentialed horse in the race.
