Mornington has eight races on Thursday afternoon, starting at 3:00pm. The track is a Good 4. The card is mostly maidens and benchmark 56 handicaps, so it is a day for value bets rather than big stakes.
Deadly Force in the first race is the most likely winner, but his price is very short. Our main bet is Crank in Race 7. Pull My Finger in the last is another value play.
Race 1 - Sportsbet Jockey Watch Maiden Plate (1000m)
Selection: Deadly Force Current odds: $1.60
Deadly Force has had one run and has trialled well during his spell. He comes back with Blake Shinn riding for the Freedman stable, which is a strong combination. The price is short, so he is better as a multi leg than a straight bet. Raining Fire has placed in every start and ran second at Bendigo, so he is the each-way runner. Top Ace is a first starter in the market. Mystic River Queen is another first starter worth watching in the betting.
Selections:
- Deadly Force - $1.60
- Raining Fire - $9.00
- Top Ace - $4.80
- Mystic River Queen - $7.50
Race 2 - Evergreen Turf Handicap (1000m)
Selection: Bifrost Current odds: $4.60
Bifrost was only just beaten at Ballarat last start and has placed three times this preparation. He should be right in the finish again. Strong Box is the favourite after a good first-up third at Ballarat and is the main danger. Bella Cinque has drawn barrier 1 and can improve on her sixth here. Ilovediamonds led all the way to win a maiden at Mildura and could lead again.
Selections:
- Bifrost - $4.60
- Strong Box - $2.70
- Bella Cinque - $5.50
- Ilovediamonds - $6.00
Race 3 - Tobin Brothers Celebrating Lives Maiden Plate (2450m)
Selection: Raghnall Current odds: $3.10
Raghnall ran fifth at Ballarat last start and should be better suited to this long trip. He is the favourite and the most likely winner. Kissattack comes from a strong stable and should be fitter for his recent runs, so he is the danger. Blanche Bass placed at Bairnsdale on a soft track. Charlie Messy Hair has a good draw and ran fourth at Ballarat.
Selections:
- Raghnall - $3.10
- Kissattack - $3.70
- Blanche Bass - $6.50
- Charlie Messy Hair - $5.50
Race 4 - Barmah Park Restaurant & Cellar Door Maiden Plate (1200m)
Selection: Trouble’N Paradise Current odds: $7.50
Trouble’N Paradise placed at Bendigo last start and wears blinkers for the first time. He has drawn very wide, but he has the speed to cross the field. At $7.50 he is good each-way value. Scoot is a Freedman stable first starter with Blake Shinn riding and should be well supported. Regal Harry is another first starter with a good draw. Iftihar was close at Kyneton at a long price first up.
Selections:
- Trouble’N Paradise - $7.50
- Scoot - $4.40
- Regal Harry - $3.10
- Iftihar - $14.00
Race 5 - 3MP Maiden Plate (1500m)
Selection: Prime Force Current odds: $3.90
Prime Force wears blinkers for the first time after a fifth at Pakenham. He should settle close to the lead and comes from a good stable. Late Night Wonder drops to country class for his second start and is close in the betting. Levent wears a tongue tie for the first time and has placed this preparation. Parera ran third at Pakenham first up, and his apprentice rider’s claim helps.
Selections:
- Prime Force - $3.90
- Late Night Wonder - $3.80
- Levent - $7.50
- Parera - $10.00
Race 6 - Sportsbet More Places Handicap (1500m)
Selection: Brutify Current odds: $3.40
Brutify was only just beaten at Kyneton on a soft track when well backed and has placed four times this campaign. He has drawn wide, but he should push forward and is the right favourite. Lope De Lardo ran a close third at Ballarat and is the main danger. Albanian I Am has a good gate after a fourth at Warrnambool and is the value runner. Fearless Writer gets a big claim from his apprentice.
Selections:
- Brutify - $3.40
- Lope De Lardo - $4.00
- Albanian I Am - $10.00
- Fearless Writer - $9.00
Race 7 - Peninsula Kubota Handicap (1200m)
Selection: Crank Current odds: $6.50
Crank won first up at Terang last preparation and trialled at Caulfield Heath on 1 October before this run. He goes well fresh, and at $6.50 he is our best value on the card. Determined Rose is the favourite after winning here last time by two lengths and is the clear danger. Light Moves comes back from a long spell and has trialled. Cresta Crystal placed at Bendigo before her break.
Selections:
- Crank - $6.50
- Determined Rose - $2.60
- Light Moves - $6.50
- Cresta Crystal - $6.50
Race 8 - Sportsbet Race Replays Handicap (1200m)
Selection: Pull My Finger Current odds: $5.50
Pull My Finger ran third at Bairnsdale and has his blinkers taken off this time. He has been in good form since resuming and is the pick in an even last race. Yellowknife has won at Pakenham and placed twice this campaign. Russian Benefits has a good record at Mornington. Grouse Mountain draws barrier 1 and is a long shot after a poor run at Seymour.
Selections:
- Pull My Finger - $5.50
- Yellowknife - $4.00
- Russian Benefits - $6.00
- Grouse Mountain - $19.00
