The tip
Sydney Roosters to win (head-to-head, $1.46). Sydney should win the premiership, but Newcastle’s finals defence and the low scores in recent grand finals point to a close game rather than a big win, so we prefer the head-to-head over the line.
The reasoning
The Roosters are the better team on the season numbers. They conceded about 21 points a game to Newcastle’s 25 and missed around seven fewer tackles per match. They have also beaten the Knights twice this year: 38-24 in Round 7, when they came back from 12 points down at half-time, and 23-22 in Round 21. In the finals they lost to Penrith, then beat Cronulla 46-10 and the Dolphins 36-20. They played on Friday, so they have nine days to prepare. Newcastle have seven after a fourth straight knockout week.
Newcastle deserve to be here. They finished seventh and beat South Sydney 20-10, the Warriors 12-10 in Auckland and Penrith 22-14, even though they had 12 men for most of the second half against the Panthers. They have conceded 34 points in three finals. Their finals defence does not fit a big Roosters win. The 23-22 game in July is also a warning: Newcastle nearly won it without Kalyn Ponga and lost two more players during the match.
Grand finals are usually tight. The last ten produced an average of about 34.5 total points, and half finished under 40. Newcastle are also likely to lose their starting hooker. Phoenix Crossland was sent off in the preliminary final and is expected to be suspended, while Jacob Saifiti is already out. That weakens the Knights, but not enough to make a one-sided result the most likely outcome. The Roosters have a close decision on Connor Watson, who failed a head injury assessment against the Dolphins. Sam Walker has come back well from his syndesmosis injury.
Main danger: A Knights upset. Newcastle have won three straight knockout games, including one with 12 men, and they nearly beat the Roosters in July while missing key players. At $1.46 the price is short, so this is a bet for a smaller stake or a multi leg rather than a big play.
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Roosters head-to-head at $1.46, smaller stake given the short price.
- Line: The Roosters -6.5 was quoted at $1.90. We would leave it, because Newcastle’s finals defence makes a comfortable win less likely than the line implies.
- For multis: The Roosters head-to-head is a sensible leg.
- Check the final team lists, especially Crossland’s judiciary outcome and Watson’s availability, before kick-off.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Sydney Roosters -12.5 - the better side on the season numbers, rested, and two wins from two against Newcastle this year. The Knights are likely to be without their starting hooker and Jacob Saifiti, and the Roosters beat Cronulla 46-10 and the Dolphins 36-20 in the finals.
- Total points under 40.5 - the last ten grand finals averaged about 34.5 points and half finished under 40, and Newcastle scored only 12 to 22 in their three finals wins, so a Roosters win in the high 20s with a modest Newcastle score stays under the line.
- Mark Nawaqanitawase to score a try at $3.00 - if the Roosters win as comfortably as we expect, their outside backs should get plenty of chances, and the price is a good one for a winger on the winning side.
The legs fit together: a comfortable Roosters win that is not a shootout, with a Roosters winger crossing. This is a bolder angle than our main bet. Our head-to-head pick is the safer play, and the 23-22 result in July is the risk to this multi. Check the team lists before kick-off, since Nawaqanitawase needs to be named, and Crossland’s suspension and Watson’s head injury check are both still open.
Combined price: $10
