Warrnambool races on Thursday with eight races, starting at 3:00pm AEDT. The track was rated a Soft 5 when tips came out, so horses with proven form on rain-affected ground deserve extra respect. The card includes two heats of the Emerging Stars Series, which lead to a rich maiden final on Ballarat Cup Day.
Crickwood in Race 7 is our best bet. She has won first-up over this course and distance before and trialled well for this run. Ned Kelly in Race 1 and Fammi in Race 4 are the shortest-priced chances on the card. We think both are the right favourites, but neither price is generous.
Race 1 - Jericho Cup Packages Available Maiden Highweight Plate (2000m)
Selection: Ned Kelly Current odds: $1.85
Ned Kelly was only sixth at Bairnsdale last start, but that was a first-up run over a longer trip. Ned Kelly should race on or near the speed, and the Lucy Yeomans stable is in good form. Paramount War is the clear danger after being beaten only half a length here last start, with placings at two of three runs at Warrnambool. Rang A Round Up draws to get a soft run and should be fitter.
Selections:
- Ned Kelly - $1.85
- Paramount War - $2.80
- Rang A Round Up - $9.50
- Rollin’Ontheriver - $11.00
Race 2 - May Racing Carnival Now On Sale Highweight Handicap (1700m)
Selection: Crossoverkid Current odds: $5.50
Crossoverkid has placed twice from three runs this preparation, and the blinkers go on for the first time. The last run on a heavy track can be ignored, and this is an easier field, so the price looks fair. Both Sides Now has won twice at Warrnambool and is the main danger. Heed The Omens drops in class for the Symon Wilde stable, and Share The Stars should lead from barrier 1.
Selections:
- Crossoverkid - $5.50
- Both Sides Now - $4.80
- Heed The Omens - $6.00
- Share The Stars - $4.80
Race 3 - Emerging Stars Series Heat 3 Maiden Plate (1400m)
Selection: Tuscan Rose Current odds: $3.20
Tuscan Rose was narrowly beaten on debut over this course and distance when she led all the way. Leading is often an advantage at Warrnambool. Her last run was on a heavy track she did not handle, so you can ignore it. She has the speed to cross from the wide gate. Bogey Free is a well-backed Ciaron Maher debutant who has trialled nicely, but carries several gear items, which suggests it may be difficult to handle. Grandpa Neil returns from a spell after good form in the Elvestroem Classic. Likely to settle back but should finish strongly, so it is an each-way chance.
Selections:
- Tuscan Rose - $3.20
- Bogey Free - $2.50
- Grandpa Neil - $5.50
- Circles Of Life - $11.00
Race 4 - Michelin Service Centre Warrnambool Maiden Plate (1000m)
Selection: Fammi Current odds: $1.50
Fammi is a debutant for Tom Dabernig, and the market says this is the one to beat. Most of his rivals have little form, so we are happy to follow the money, even though the price is short. Empire Fella and Chardy Lass both debut for the Maddie Raymond and Patrick Bell stable and are worth watching in the betting. Tycoonette returns from a two-year break with a new trainer and has placed in a trial.
Selections:
- Fammi - $1.50
- Empire Fella - $9.50
- Tycoonette - $12.00
- Chardy Lass - $12.00
Race 5 - Emerging Stars Series Heat 4 Maiden Plate (1200m)
Selection: Leona Current odds: $2.25
Leona returns from a 41-week spell after a strong second over this course on debut. With only one start behind it, there should be more improvement to come. Zercardy was a narrow third as favourite here first-up and looks the main danger. Big Vee has placed twice at Warrnambool this preparation without winning and is the each-way option at a bigger price.
Selections:
- Leona - $2.25
- Zercardy - $6.00
- Big Vee - $7.50
- Semper Augustus - $19.00
Race 6 - S & S O’Keefe Bricklaying BM62 Handicap (1200m)
Selection: King West Current odds: $3.90
King West has won at Moe and placed twice this preparation, including a narrow second here last start, and should race handy. Pastoral King won its only start here and is the main danger, but this is a harder race. Ballynacally was well beaten at Hamilton but has form at the trip. Secret Crossing led all the way to win at Avoca and steps up to this grade.
Selections:
- King West - $3.90
- Pastoral King - $3.60
- Ballynacally - $5.50
- Secret Crossing - $4.60
Race 7 - Sungold Milk BM62 Handicap (1000m)
Selection: Crickwood Current odds: $2.60
This is our best bet. Crickwood won first-up over this course and distance last preparation. She then ran home strongly for second here from a poor position, then recorded some of the fastest closing sectionals of the day at Mornington. She has trialled well, and a barrier blanket should help her begin. She will want a track that suits horses coming from behind. Du Clisson goes well fresh and should get a good run, but at around $2.20 she looks short. Twister won here last start but steps up in class.
Selections:
- Crickwood - $2.60
- Du Clisson - $2.20
- Twister - $11.00
- Leantothemoon - $7.00
Race 8 - TAB BM62 Handicap (1400m)
Selection: Invisible Magic Current odds: $4.60
Invisible Magic was second here last start and has already won at Bendigo this preparation. A good apprentice claim brings the weight down. Charming Deel has drawn wide but has the early speed to cross, and is rated about the same chance in the market. Asal drops back to a preferred trip and has the tongue tie on for the first time. Dealer Sing won first-up last preparation and has a good draw.
Selections:
- Invisible Magic - $4.60
- Charming Deel - $4.60
- Asal - $10.00
- Dealer Sing - $8.50
