Bairnsdale has eight races on Monday, starting at 1:30pm, and the track is rated Heavy 8 after more than 100mm of rain last week. The rail is back in the true position. This is a tight track where horses close to the speed usually have an advantage, and more showers are possible, so check the track rating and scratchings before you bet.
Several horses here are also entered at Kilmore on Tuesday, including Bliss Bomb, Luminary Miss, Asmita, Sub Gauge and Dane On Tour, so some may be scratched.
Precambrian in Race 5 is our best bet of the day and is good value at $7.50. Japanese Moka in Race 2 is the most likely winner on the card, and Pull My Finger in Race 7 is the next best.
Race 1 - Maiden Plate (1600m)
Selection: Vespasian Current odds: $4.80
Vespasian draws barrier 2 and should lead or sit just behind the leader. He tired late when fourth at Tatura, and blinkers go on for the first time, which could help him finish his race. Passio is the favourite, has placed twice from three runs this campaign and has early speed. Sentaloa has placed at every start this campaign and also wears blinkers for the first time. Ned Kelly resumes after 34 weeks from barrier 1 and drops back in trip.
Selections:
- Vespasian - $4.80
- Passio - $3.60
- Sentaloa - $5.00
- Ned Kelly - $4.80
Race 2 - Maiden Plate (1200m)
Selection: Japanese Moka Current odds: $2.50
Japanese Moka was well backed on debut at Hamilton and finished second, beaten just over a length, after being close to a fast early speed. He should be fitter for that run, blinkers go on for the first time, and he has drawn well to race on the speed. He is the one to beat. Weasel Sea was second at Kilmore and has barrier 1, but he can be slow away, so he needs a clean start. Moving Point has placed at both starts but has drawn wide.
Selections:
- Japanese Moka - $2.50
- Weasel Sea - $5.00
- Moving Point - $3.40
- Castelli In Aria - $3.80
Race 3 - Maiden Plate (1000m)
Selection: Ostrom Current odds: $4.40
Ostrom ran on well for third at Mornington first-up, beaten three lengths at long odds, and should improve. He should be close to the lead in this short race. Southern Sway is the favourite as a first starter for Dominic Sutton, so watch the betting. Lonnegan is a debutant from the Matt Laurie stable. Tyrant Rex should be better at his second start.
Selections:
- Ostrom - $4.40
- Southern Sway - $2.10
- Lonnegan - $5.50
- Tyrant Rex - $6.00
Race 4 - Maiden Plate (2200m)
Selection: Churchill Lane Current odds: $3.70
Churchill Lane was third at Tatura, beaten just over a length, and has placed twice this campaign. The step up to 2200m should help a horse who can race near the lead. Baldoni finished well for fourth at Moe and is the main danger. Camegitchee draws barrier 1 and could improve on his last run at Moe at a good price.
Selections:
- Churchill Lane - $3.70
- Baldoni - $4.80
- Camegitchee - $10.00
- Ask The Captain - $8.50
Race 5 - BM56 Handicap (2200m)
Selection: Precambrian Current odds: $7.50
Precambrian is our best bet of the day and looks good value. He won his maiden easily at Echuca last start and looks better than this grade. Several runners are close together in the market, so $7.50 is a good price. Stole Him was third at Kilmore and should get a good position for an in-form jockey and trainer. Phoenician was only just beaten here last start and has placed twice this campaign. Just Dance led and won here last start and draws the rail.
Selections:
- Precambrian - $7.50
- Stole Him - $4.60
- Phoenician - $7.50
- Just Dance - $7.00
Race 6 - BM56 Handicap (1000m)
Selection: Midnight Devil Current odds: $3.60
Midnight Devil has placed three times from five runs this campaign and backs up after a run last week. He has the speed to lead, which suits this track. Just Remember It is the favourite, resuming after 26 weeks for a new stable after placing in a trial. Astari won on a soft track at Echuca two starts ago, so the wet track suits him. Divine Empress is a long-priced chance. She ran off the track first-up at Sale, so that run can be ignored, and she has a low barrier. Bliss Bomb is also entered at Kilmore on Tuesday.
Selections:
- Midnight Devil - $3.60
- Just Remember It - $3.20
- Astari - $3.70
- Divine Empress - $10.00
Race 7 - BM56 Handicap (1200m)
Selection: Pull My Finger Current odds: $6.50
Pull My Finger was narrowly beaten as favourite here last start and has been improving with each run. He finishes strongly and looks ready to win at a good price. I Am Algadon is the favourite after winning at Tatura at only a second career start, but goes up in weight. Asmita finishes well and has placed twice this campaign. Luminary Miss won at long odds here last start. Asmita and Luminary Miss are both also entered at Kilmore on Tuesday.
Selections:
- Pull My Finger - $6.50
- I Am Algadon - $2.25
- Asmita - $4.40
- Luminary Miss - $5.50
Race 8 - BM56 Handicap (1600m)
Selection: Mike’s Hope Current odds: $8.50
Mike’s Hope was second at Swan Hill last start and has been running well since his spell. He also won at Mildura this campaign. Rich King won his maiden on a soft track at Bendigo and has placed at every start this campaign. Prevention is the favourite after dropping back from a run at Caulfield Heath. Great Prosperity placed on a heavy track at Moe and is worth an each-way bet while the track stays wet.
Selections:
- Mike’s Hope - $8.50
- Rich King - $4.20
- Prevention - $3.70
- Great Prosperity - $9.00
