Ballarat runs eight races on Wednesday. The track is a Good 4 and should improve to a Good 3 during the day, and the rail is out 4m after being in the true position at the last meeting. Northerly winds of up to 25km/h are forecast and could affect some races. Ballarat is a big, open track with a 1200m chute, and horses that settle back are rarely badly placed, so we have not been too worried about runners that sit off the speed.
Crocodile in Race 5 is our best bet. Carriedo in Race 7 is next best, and Blue Humma in Race 8 is our each-way value play.
Race 1
Selection: Semantics Current odds: $2.40
Semantics showed promise on debut without winning and has trialled very well since. She is likely to reach a better grade than this. The concern is the price, because this is a strong maiden. Aroused has trialled well for a strong stable and is not far behind her in the market, so she is a genuine danger. Scoville and Unkechaug have also trialled well and are worth a small each-way bet if they drift.
Selections:
- Semantics - $2.40
- Aroused - $3.30
- Scoville - $6.50
- Unkechaug - $12.00
Race 2 (2000m)
Selection: Courting Current odds: $5.00
Courting steps up from 1400m to 2000m. She finished well last start and looks like she will be a stayer, so the longer trip should suit her. She should also settle closer to the lead than before. Tears Of Happiness is the favourite and has ability, but her draw is awkward and she needs a good run to win. Lollie’s Galore should improve at 2000m and finish strongly, and her price looks a little too big. Aerostatique was beaten last start, but that form has produced winners and he has been backed early.
Selections:
- Courting - $5.00
- Tears Of Happiness - $4.20
- Lollie’s Galore - $7.50
- Aerostatique - $12.00
Race 3
Selection: Full Confidence Current odds: $3.70
Full Confidence was beaten last start by two very smart fillies and should improve. However, she has to cross from a wide draw, and that is the main risk. The danger is Hedjet, who came back from a long spell to run second to a smart horse and should get a good run this time. Before coming to Australia, he was beaten by an Epsom Derby winner, so he has good form. If his price looks generous on the day, he is worth backing. So Royal and Braemar Hill should both improve with the run.
Selections:
- Full Confidence - $3.70
- Braemar Hill - $5.00
- So Royal - $8.00
Race 4
Selection: Perfect Night Current odds: $3.40
Perfect Night and Kingsbury come out of the same race, and Perfect Night finished much faster. Kingsbury will get the easier run, but the market has him a clear favourite over Perfect Night, and we do not think the gap should be that big. That makes Perfect Night the value. Lope De Lardo improved last start and should benefit from the step up in distance, so he is a good each-way option at a long price. Invisible Magic is in form and has a good inside draw.
Selections:
- Perfect Night - $3.40
- Invisible Magic - $5.50
- Lope De Lardo - $12.00
Race 5 (1600m)
Selection: Crocodile Current odds: $3.90
This is our best bet of the day. Crocodile raced wide without cover last start and still finished well, so he can be forgiven that loss. He is third up and 1600m suits him. Yauson is a short-priced favourite after a dominant win, but the horses he beat were weak, so we think he is too short. The form from that race has held up, however, so he is still the main danger. Jenni You Think is in good form and can win a race like this if she settles. Easy Dun sometimes runs well at a big price.
Selections:
- Crocodile - $3.90
- Yauson - $1.85
- Jenni You Think - $7.00
- Easy Dun - $21.00
Race 6
Selection: Mull Of Kintyre Current odds: $5.00
Mull Of Kintyre raced wide in a slowly run race last start, so that run is worth forgiving, and he should improve. Handee is favourite after winning last start, but the horses he beat do not look strong, so we doubt his short price. Turbo Saint won well on debut, should improve and has a good draw. Cavill Avenue also won on debut and has trialled well, and it is interesting that Jamie Melham rides him in his only ride of the day.
Selections:
- Mull Of Kintyre - $5.00
- Cavill Avenue - $4.80
- Turbo Saint - $6.50
- Handee - $4.00
Race 7
Selection: Carriedo Current odds: $3.20
Carriedo looked a very good horse when she won at Sandown two starts ago. She was disappointing as favourite last time, but her recent trials have been strong and she looks ready to bounce back. Aurora Belle is unbeaten in New Zealand and has trialled well before her first Australian start. She deserves respect, but her form is harder to compare with these runners, so we prefer Carriedo at a similar price. Brandjam has been poor in his last two starts, but if he returns to his best, he is a long shot worth considering.
Selections:
- Carriedo - $3.20
- Aurora Belle - $3.00
- Brandjam - $23.00
Race 8 (1000m)
Selection: Blue Humma Current odds: $6.00
Blue Humma had the worst of the track last start and still ran well. She is lightly raced and could improve a lot, so she is our each-way value play. Bold Bordeaux won nicely last start, but that run suggested she wants 1200m, and back at 1000m she could be caught flat-footed. Romantic Miss has plenty of speed, battled well first up and could lead. Gina’s A Star won well last time and should race close to the speed again.
Selections:
- Blue Humma - $6.00
- Gina’s A Star - $7.50
- Bold Bordeaux - $4.00
- Romantic Miss - $13.00
