Cranbourne races eight times on Friday night, starting at 6:15pm. Rain is forecast, so expect a wet track and possibly a heavy one if the rain is as bad as predicted. The rail is out 3m for the whole circuit. Cranbourne usually suits horses racing on or near the lead, and that should be even more true on wet ground. Riders are likely to come wide in the straight in search of better going.
Our value play is Xtra Rush in Race 3. In A Tizzy in Race 1 is the most likely winner on the card, but she is short.
Race 1 - Maiden Plate (1200m)
Selection: In A Tizzy Current odds: $1.85
In A Tizzy starts her second preparation in an easier maiden than the races she contested last time, when she finished fourth at Canterbury. She looks the clear leader, and on a wet track at Cranbourne a horse that leads unchallenged is hard to catch. Ektifire has drawn well and ran third at Bendigo, and Armorware ran second at Mornington. Acharnee has handled heavy ground before and is a roughie if conditions get bad.
Selections:
- In A Tizzy - $1.85
- Ektifire - $4.80
- Armorware - $8.00
- Acharnee - $18.00
Race 2 - Maiden Plate (1000m)
Selection: Kiss Me In Paris Current odds: $15.00
Kiss Me In Paris is having just her second start. She was well backed on debut but had excuses for a poor run, was sent to the paddock and has trialled nicely since. She has drawn low. This is a speculative each-way bet. Valaroso is the favourite after running second first up at Caulfield Heath and is fitter now, but he has drawn wide. Keen Observer has placed at all four starts this preparation.
Selections:
- Kiss Me In Paris - $15.00
- Valaroso - $2.60
- Keen Observer - $8.50
- Resonant - $5.00
Race 3 - Benchmark 74 Handicap (1600m)
Selection: Xtra Rush Current odds: $5.00
Xtra Rush is unbeaten first up, including a narrow win at Caulfield Heath when he set the pace at the start of last preparation. He drops in grade, has barrier one and should get the perfect run on the pace. The drop back in distance is the only small question. All Business won over 1600m at Caulfield Heath last start and has won on a wet track. Mr Sioux, for Ciaron Maher with Jabez Johnstone riding, is lightly raced and ran his best race on a wet track. Two Wolves is the favourite and has strong each-way claims, now he drops in grade and steps up to the mile.
Selections:
- Xtra Rush - $5.00
- Two Wolves - $4.60
- Mr Sioux - $7.00
- All Business - $8.00
Race 4 - Benchmark 74 Handicap (955m)
Selection: Speir Current odds: $3.30
Expect a fast pace in this sprint. Speir has drawn barrier one, should get the run behind the leaders, and led all the way to win first up at Moe last preparation. The Speed Machine is the favourite, has plenty of early speed, and won first up last time as well, so this looks close. Yukaina resumes and should be near the pace. Walter Spur has the best wet form in the field and could finish over the top if the leaders tire.
Selections:
- Speir - $3.30
- The Speed Machine - $3.40
- Yukaina - $4.40
- Walter Spur - $14.00
Race 5 - Benchmark 70 Handicap (1000m)
Selection: Headbanger Current odds: $2.80
Headbanger was only midfield first up at Sandown but should be fitter now, and she has a good record at Cranbourne. She has enough early speed to cross from her draw. Parcae won her debut at Mornington by two and a half lengths and is the main danger from barrier two. Sweet Vixen ran second first up last preparation and is a value runner.
Selections:
- Headbanger - $2.80
- Parcae - $3.60
- Sweet Vixen - $11.00
- Shaime - $10.00
Race 6 - Benchmark 66 Handicap (2025m)
Selection: Killenaule Current odds: $3.00
Killenaule has placed at all four starts this preparation, most recently a second at Caulfield Heath, and is ready to win. He has drawn barrier two and steps up in distance. Melek ran second at Ballarat for the Maher and Johnstone combination and is the main danger. Tishman won first up on a heavy track at Sale last preparation and is an each-way chance if the rain comes.
Selections:
- Killenaule - $3.00
- Melek - $4.00
- Frank Whisper - $6.50
- Tishman - $15.00
Race 7 - Benchmark 66 Handicap (1400m)
Selection: Cashout Current odds: $2.70
Cashout won first up this preparation, then ran second at Sandown in a stronger race. He drops back in grade and can get himself handy early. Castellito has placed at all three starts this preparation and should get a good position from barrier three. Barking Mad won both his career races over 1400m and handles wet ground. Lyrics ‘N’ Song won at Seymour but has drawn wide.
Selections:
- Cashout - $2.70
- Castellito - $8.00
- Lyrics ‘N’ Song - $6.00
- Barking Mad - $9.00
Race 8 - Benchmark 66 Handicap (1200m)
Selection: Electric Elvis Current odds: $4.40
By the last race the track will likely be well cut up. Electric Elvis has a good record over 1200m, goes well on wet tracks and ran second at Bendigo last start. He should race handy, which matters on a chopped-up track. Shystar resumes in an easier grade and should get a good run from barrier two. The Volta is joint favourite but tends to finish late, which is harder on a wet track.
Selections:
- Electric Elvis - $4.40
- The Volta - $4.40
- Shystar - $8.50
- Persian Caviar - $9.00
