Flemington races ten times on Saturday, with the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and the Bart Cummings (2520m), a Melbourne Cup qualifier, as the main races. The first race is at 12:25pm. Heavy rain is forecast for Melbourne from Thursday to Saturday, so the track could end up in the heavy range. We have leaned towards horses with proven wet form and horses that race on the pace. Check the track rating and scratchings on the morning.
Our main play is Juja Kibo in the Bart Cummings. Cabriole in Race 2 is a solid early bet, and Buckaroo is our each-way value in the Turnbull.
Race 1 - Maribyrnong Trial Stakes (1000m)
Selection: Proverb Current odds: $3.90
All the runners are two-year-olds having their first start, so this is mostly about pedigree, stable and betting. Proverb is a Written Tycoon colt from Michael Freedman’s stable and is the early favourite. Ankaa, by Anamoe, is trained by the McEvoys and is close in the market. Treat this as a watching race, or bet very small.
Selections:
- Proverb - $3.90
- Ankaa - $4.20
- Bella Divina - $6.00
- Maalefushi - $8.00
Race 2 - Benchmark 78 Handicap (1200m)
Selection: Cabriole Current odds: $4.80
Cabriole won first up at Caulfield Heath despite a slow start, which forced him to be pushed forward early. He has been racing in stakes company, so this handicap is easier. He ran poorly on heavy ground at Caulfield in May, but that was an unusual day when the winners all came down the outside rail, so we are not reading much into it. Thebelmontgangster resumes after running second here and has a good finish.
Selections:
- Cabriole - $4.80
- Thebelmontgangster - $7.00
- Hankee Alpha - $7.00
- Silver Dagger - $23.00
Race 3 - Super Impose Stakes (1800m)
Selection: Lepolo Current odds: $3.50
Lepolo won by three and a half lengths at Sandown last start and has drawn to get a soft run near the lead. The class rise is the question, but the margin of that win stands out. Aragog ran second here last start, and Cignetti has placed at every start this preparation.
Selections:
- Lepolo - $3.50
- Aragog - $8.50
- Cignetti - $13.00
- Ko Phangan - $23.00
Race 4 - Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m)
Selection: Saintly Dancer Current odds: $6.00
Saintly Dancer ran second at Caulfield last start and should be ridden close to the speed, which suits a wet track. Profligate is the favourite after a strong third at Caulfield, but she came from well back, and that is harder if the ground is heavy. Portinari also ran on well at Caulfield.
Selections:
- Saintly Dancer - $6.00
- Profligate - $4.60
- Portinari - $6.50
- La Barrita - $19.00
Race 5 - Rose of Kingston Stakes (1400m)
Selection: Tennessee Bound Current odds: $5.00
Tennessee Bound ran a strong second at Sandown, beaten just over a length, and has the speed to settle handy. Jabez Johnstone rides. Gold Coast Belle is the favourite and has good form at the distance, but she was below her best here last start. On Display ran close here last start and always finishes well.
Selections:
- Tennessee Bound - $5.00
- Gold Coast Belle - $3.70
- On Display - $8.50
- Cilacap - $23.00
Race 6 - Danehill Stakes (1100m)
Selection: Natural Fling Current odds: $2.20
Natural Fling ran third in the Moir Stakes and has enough speed to overcome her wide draw. She is a fair favourite. The danger we rate most is The Next Episode, who beat her on rain-affected ground on the Gold Coast and has reportedly worked very well at Cranbourne. We did not have a reliable price for him when we wrote this, so check his odds on the day. He may offer more value than the favourite. Over Excited has placed at every start this campaign.
Selections:
- Natural Fling - $2.20
- Over Excited - $5.50
- Mbube - $9.50
- Stretan Ruler - $34.00
Race 7 - Bart Cummings (2520m)
Selection: Juja Kibo Current odds: $6.00
Juja Kibo ran a career-best second in the Kingston Town Stakes at only his second run this campaign, and he is still improving. He handles wet ground, races on the pace and should get a good run. Aethelwulf is the $3.00 favourite after four straight wins, but the heavy track is a question for him, and he is also entered for The Metropolitan at Randwick. If Aethelwulf runs in Sydney, Juja Kibo becomes a much stronger bet here. Juja Kibo also has a Metropolitan entry, so confirm he is running at Flemington before you bet.
Selections:
- Juja Kibo - $6.00
- Aethelwulf - $3.00
- Litzdeel - $10.00
- Soulcombe - $17.00
Race 8 - Turnbull Stakes (2000m)
Selection: Buckaroo Current odds: $15.00
Sir Delius is the deserved favourite and won this race last year, but he carries an extra kilo this time (59kg) and $2.80 is short enough. Buckaroo has run to a high rating many times, loves a wet track and has only 55kg, so he is the each-way value. Light Infantry Man should lead from barrier three and has a good record at this track and distance, so watch his price on the day. Aeliana ran second to Autumn Glow last start, but that was a slow race, and she may need a stronger pace than this field looks likely to set.
Selections:
- Buckaroo - $15.00
- Sir Delius - $2.80
- Aeliana - $4.00
- Cosmic Crusader - $6.50
Race 9 - Gilgai Stakes (1200m)
Selection: Arkansaw Kid Current odds: $9.00
Arkansaw Kid has won two of his three starts on wet tracks and ran fourth here last start, so the forecast rain helps him more than most. Skybird is the favourite and drops in class, and Hedged has been improving and should race close to the lead. This is an each-way bet.
Selections:
- Arkansaw Kid - $9.00
- Skybird - $3.80
- Hedged - $6.00
- War Machine - $10.00
Race 10 - Paris Lane Stakes (1400m)
Selection: Cafe Millenium Current odds: $9.00
This is an open race to finish the day, with no clear favourite among our top four. Cafe Millenium ran third here last start, beaten a length, and finishes his races well. Enxuto also ran third here and has William Pike riding, but he may get back. Keep stakes small.
Selections:
- Cafe Millenium - $9.00
- Enxuto - $8.00
- Just Party - $9.50
- Fancify - $19.00
