Derby Day opens the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington. The track was rated a Good 4 on race morning with the rail in the true position, but showers are forecast and a northerly wind is expected to blow into the runners’ faces on the home turn. If the rain arrives, expect the track to drop into the soft range and keep an eye on wet-track form, particularly in the late sprints.
This preview starts from Race 3, as the first two races had already been run when prices were captured. Check scratchings before betting, as fields can change late on a big day.
Our best bet is Lady Shenandoah in the Empire Rose. In the Derby we side with Stormy Marco, but it is an open race and we treat him as a sensible win bet rather than a standout.
Race 3 - Wakeful Stakes (2000m)
Selection: Icelady Current odds: $3.00
Icelady has placed in all three runs this campaign, including a second in the Thousand Guineas, and she has won at Caulfield. She has the speed to hold a good spot from the outset, and that suits a race where several fillies are using this as an Oaks lead-up. The 2000m is a query for her. De Armas ran behind her in the Guineas but looks the more natural stayer of the two. Churchill Rose is tough and appeals as the each-way roughie.
Selections:
- Icelady - $3.00
- De Armas - $3.60
- Your Colour - $5.00
- Churchill Rose - $21.00
Race 4 - Rising Fast Stakes (1200m)
Selection: Hankee Alpha Current odds: $4.40
Hankee Alpha won first up down the Flemington straight on a heavy track and has won a trial since. She is rising sharply in grade, but she was impressive last time and should improve with that run under her belt. She is our top pick, especially if the track is rain affected. Napoleonic wears blinkers for the first time, has James McDonald aboard and ran well in the Manikato. Sweynesday beat Hankee Alpha last year and has drawn well.
Selections:
- Hankee Alpha - $4.40
- Napoleonic - $5.00
- Sweynesday - $6.50
- Grand Larceny - $26.00
Race 5 - Damien Oliver Stakes (1400m)
Selection: Private Eye Current odds: $7.50
Private Eye was just beaten as favourite at Caulfield last start and has three placings from four runs this preparation. He maps to race handy with James McDonald aboard, and the price is attractive. Warnie won this race last year and is a dual Flemington winner, but barrier 1 could leave him stuck on the fence. Persian Spirit won last start and goes well at Flemington, so include him in exotics.
Selections:
- Private Eye - $7.50
- Warnie - $4.80
- Persian Spirit - $6.50
- Hughes - $11.00
Race 6 - Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)
Selection: St Gotthard Current odds: $4.40
St Gotthard has not missed a place, and his second in the Golden Rose is the strongest form in the race. He has been freshened since, trialled well down the straight and wears blinkers for the first time. The Next Episode is chasing a fourth straight win and goes well on a wet track, so he is the one to beat if the rain arrives. Satono Glow is a classy filly coming off two straight wins, and Natural Fling was only just beaten here last start.
Selections:
- St Gotthard - $4.40
- The Next Episode - $3.40
- Satono Glow - $4.80
- Natural Fling - $8.00
Race 7 - Victoria Derby (2500m)
Selection: Stormy Marco Current odds: $4.60
The Sydney form through the Golden Rose and Spring Champion looks the strongest in the field, and Stormy Marco looks more suited to 2500m than any of his rivals. A wide draw means he will settle near the back, but James McDonald rides and there should be plenty of speed up front. Cormier has had the better of him in most of their meetings and will race closer to the lead. King Snitz won at Caulfield and should get a good run behind the speed, and True Rebel has won or placed at every start.
Selections:
- Stormy Marco - $4.60
- Cormier - $5.00
- King Snitz - $10.00
- True Rebel - $10.00
Race 8 - Empire Rose Stakes (1600m)
Selection: Lady Shenandoah Current odds: $2.25
Lady Shenandoah won the Toorak Handicap carrying 58kg and now drops back to mares’ weight-for-age. That gives her a big advantage on the weights. Her mile form also includes a Flight Stakes win. With James McDonald retained and a draw that should let her settle midfield, she is the standout of the day. Surfin’ Bird has won her last two, including the Crystal Mile here, but she backs up quickly. Idle Flyer and Sass Appeal, who is a four-time Flemington winner, are the others to include.
Selections:
- Lady Shenandoah - $2.25
- Surfin’ Bird - $5.50
- Idle Flyer - $11.00
- Sass Appeal - $16.00
Race 9 - Sprint (1100m)
Selection: Flying For Fun Current odds: $2.60
Flying For Fun is a straight-course winner and was runner-up in this race last year. She also ran on strongly behind Jigsaw last start. She has drawn to get the outside rail and has James McDonald aboard. She is the right favourite on a dry track, but rain would make her a big risk. Bridal Waltz has placed in all her races as favourite and likes the straight. Eagle Express and Naifah are the roughies. Eagle Express was unlucky at her last start.
Selections:
- Flying For Fun - $2.60
- Bridal Waltz - $5.00
- Naifah - $14.00
- Eagle Express - $31.00
