Kilmore has seven races on Tuesday, starting at 2:00pm, and the track is rated Soft 5. It is a lower-grade card, mostly maidens and Benchmark 52 to 56 handicaps, so recent form and good barriers matter more than usual. Several runners are also entered at Bairnsdale on Monday, including Bliss Bomb, Luminary Miss, Asmita, Sub Gauge and Dane On Tour, so check scratchings before you bet.
Give Some Lip in Race 5 is our best bet. Skydream in Race 6 is the most likely winner on the card, but her price is short. Theatrical Queen in Race 1 is our value play.
Race 1 - Fillies and Mares Maiden Plate (1457m)
Selection: Theatrical Queen Current odds: $5.00
Theatrical Queen was first-up at Bairnsdale and finished strongly from midfield. She steps up in distance for the first time, which should suit how she runs, and she has a good finish once she gets clear. Full Confidence is the favourite. She placed fresh in city company and was fourth at Ballarat last start, so she is the one to beat. Ambition In Bloom is a first starter for Matt Laurie and the market will be a good guide. Forward Ho ran third at Tatura but looks a place chance at best.
Selections:
- Theatrical Queen - $5.00
- Full Confidence - $2.00
- Ambition In Bloom - $6.00
- Forward Ho - $13.00
Race 2 - Three-Year-Old Fillies Maiden Plate (1207m)
Selection: Nishioka Current odds: $3.60
Nishioka was only just beaten at her only start at Bairnsdale and finished strongly. That run is the best form in a race full of first starters. Tighten Up is a debutant from Matt Laurie’s stable and is the likely danger in betting. Storm Bella, from the same stable, wears a tongue tie on debut, and Vanara Princess also starts for the first time, but both are long prices. The race may be run at an uneven speed, so a horse that can find a good position early will have an advantage.
Selections:
- Nishioka - $3.60
- Tighten Up - $4.20
- Vanara Princess - $19.00
- Storm Bella - $26.00
Race 3 - Fillies and Mares Benchmark 56 Handicap (1207m)
Selection: Sugar Schnapps Current odds: $3.50
Sugar Schnapps started favourite at Tatura last start and did not win, but she comes from a good stable and this race is no harder. She has drawn barrier two, which should give her a good position. Bliss Bomb won a trial during her short break and is the main danger. Le Notre won her maiden at Pakenham last time and has barrier one. Luminary Miss won at a big price at Bairnsdale and Asmita finishes well, but both are also entered at Bairnsdale on Monday.
Selections:
- Sugar Schnapps - $3.50
- Bliss Bomb - $5.00
- Le Notre - $5.00
- Luminary Miss - $8.00
Race 4 - Benchmark 56 Handicap (1207m)
Selection: Manchego Current odds: $3.20
Manchego won at Echuca last start and comes from a good stable, so he is the in-form horse. He has drawn wide in barrier 10, which is the main concern. I Said So is almost the same price. He has placed in two of his three starts this campaign, including a third at Sale last time, and is the clear danger. Black Adam has drawn barrier one and is a big-priced chance at $10 if he finds the rail. Ryanman returns from a 21-week break with a recent trial placing.
Selections:
- Manchego - $3.20
- I Said So - $3.30
- Ryanman - $21.00
- Black Adam - $10.00
Race 5 - Benchmark 52 Handicap (1457m)
Selection: Give Some Lip Current odds: $2.50
Give Some Lip is our best bet of the day. He was heavily backed and finished a close third on the Ballarat synthetic last time, and he returns after an 11-week break in a Benchmark 52, the lowest grade on the card. Barrier one should give him a perfect run on the rail. Adki has good form at Kilmore, has trialled and should race on the speed, so he is the main danger. Slate Ripper finished four lengths from the winner here last start and could run a place.
Selections:
- Give Some Lip - $2.50
- Adki - $4.60
- Slate Ripper - $5.50
- I’m Dynamite - $11.00
Race 6 - Fillies and Mares Benchmark 56 Handicap (1457m)
Selection: Skydream Current odds: $1.80
Skydream led all the way and won her maiden easily here last start. She has barrier one again and should be able to lead. This race is harder than a maiden, and $1.80 is a short price, so she is better in a multi than as a single bet. Mahmudah is the value alternative from Hanna Powell’s stable. Hustle was only just beaten at Wodonga, and Sinister Sauce won twice last campaign and races without blinkers for the first time. Pacific Jewel resumes and was second first-up last campaign.
Selections:
- Skydream - $1.80
- Mahmudah - $9.50
- Hustle - $9.00
- Sinister Sauce - $9.00
Race 7 - Benchmark 56 Handicap (1607m)
Selection: Switch Hit Current odds: $2.70
Switch Hit has placed in four of his five starts this campaign and was backed and only just beaten here last time. He has drawn barrier two, so he should get a good position close to the lead. Dane On Tour won strongly at Bairnsdale last start and is the main danger at a better price, but he is also entered at Bairnsdale on Monday. Celestial Splendor drops in grade after a sixth at Ballarat, and Winter Nights comes from a good stable.
Selections:
- Switch Hit - $2.70
- Dane On Tour - $5.00
- Winter Nights - $18.00
- Celestial Splendor - $7.50
