There are four NBA games on Monday morning for Australian viewers. The Lakers visit Utah at 8:00am AEDT, Indiana play in Brooklyn at 9:00am, and the Clippers at Oklahoma City and Orlando at New York both start at 10:00am. Our best bet comes from Oklahoma City, where the Thunder’s defence has made a strong start to the season.
Best Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5 at $1.90. It is a big line, but the Thunder have held Denver and San Antonio to fewer than 105 points in their first two games, and both of those teams had top-three attacks last season. The Clippers have a poor record in Oklahoma City, and we rate this as our strongest bet of the day.
The reasoning
Oklahoma City’s defence is the reason for this bet. Through two games, the Nuggets and Spurs scored only 95.9 points per 100 possessions against them. The Clippers will have to score far better than those two teams did to keep this close. If the Thunder keep them to around 100 points, a margin of 15 or more is very realistic.
The history also favours Oklahoma City. The Clippers have won only once in 16 road games there since the end of 2016 and covered only three times. In the three games where they started as underdogs by nine points or more, they lost by an average of 21.6 points.
The risk is that the Thunder win easily but rest their starters in the last quarter. Last season they won 29 of 31 games as favourites of 14 points or more, but covered in only 17 of them. That is the danger with a line this big, but we think their defence makes a big win more likely than usual.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5 - our Best Bet, built on their defence and the Clippers’ poor record in Oklahoma City.
- Under 222.5 total points - neither Denver nor San Antonio scored more than 104 against the Thunder, which keeps the total down.
- LA Clippers under 104.5 team points - the Thunder have held both opponents below this number so far.
Combined price: $6.80
Other picks on the slate
- New York Knicks to win ($1.33) v Orlando. Both teams are 0-2, but Orlando have lost Paolo Banchero to a high ankle sprain and Anthony Black is questionable. Without Banchero, New York can use Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart to focus on Franz Wagner. The price is short, so this is better used in a multi.
- Indiana Pacers to win ($1.39) at Brooklyn. Indiana lost to Dallas on Friday, but Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac should have an advantage over Brooklyn’s young guards, Egor Demin and Nolan Traore. Aaron Nesmith is also back, which gives the Pacers more depth.
- Utah Jazz to win ($3.03) v the Lakers. This is a speculative bet. The Lakers are 2-0, but Walker Kessler faces his old team, and Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. can pull him away from the basket. That should give Darryn Peterson and Keyonte George space to drive. At $3.03 there is some value, but keep the stake small.
How we’d play it
Thunder -14.5 is the main bet at a normal stake. The Knicks and Pacers are short prices, so they suit a head-to-head double rather than single bets. The Jazz are a small bet for value only. Keep the SGM stake small, and check the Thunder’s team news before tip-off at 10:00am AEDT.
