There are nine NBA games on Tuesday for Australian viewers. Minnesota at Cleveland and Washington at Charlotte start at 10:00am AEDT, Chicago at Boston and Dallas at Miami follow at 10:30am, and the last game, Golden State at Denver, starts at 1:00pm. Our best bet comes from Cleveland, where a tired Timberwolves team visits.
Best Bet
Cleveland Cavaliers to win at $1.69. Minnesota are 3-0, but they play the second night of a back-to-back, and Cleveland are at home. We think the Cavaliers’ guards can hurt the Timberwolves’ defence, and the price is fair for a home team in this spot. This is a solid bet rather than a standout one.
The reasoning
Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are both very good in the pick and roll. Minnesota usually play Rudy Gobert back near the basket, which can give good shooters and passers space. Mitchell and Harden should get plenty of open looks from their two-man actions.
The schedule also helps Cleveland. Minnesota played the night before, and teams on the second night of a back-to-back often fade late. The Cavaliers are 1-1 after a mixed start, but they are a better side at home.
The danger is that Minnesota have started the season well and have covered in each of their last four games as favourites. The line is Cleveland -3.5, which tells you the market expects a close game, so we prefer the head-to-head bet to the line.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 - if the Timberwolves fade on the back-to-back, the Cavaliers should win by more than a few points.
- Over 232.5 total points - the Over has hit in the last five meetings in Cleveland and in six of the Cavaliers’ last seven home games.
- Cleveland Cavaliers to win the second half - the Cavaliers have won the second half in 27 of their last 40 home games, and the tired legs should show late.
Combined price: $6.80
Other picks on the slate
- Miami Heat to win ($1.31) v Dallas. The Heat are 0-3, but Dallas have injuries in the frontcourt and will struggle to handle Giannis Antetokounmpo. The price is short, so this suits a multi.
- Denver Nuggets to win ($1.33) v Golden State. The Warriors do not have a good match-up for Nikola Jokic, and their options are Draymond Green, a 40-year-old Al Horford or a rookie. Stephen Curry should return, but Denver can send extra defenders at him.
- Milwaukee Bucks to win ($2.48) v Indiana. This is a value bet. Indiana are on the second night of a back-to-back, and Tyrese Haliburton is returning from an Achilles injury, so his minutes could be limited. If he sits, the Bucks’ chances improve a lot.
- Boston Celtics to win ($1.14) v Chicago. Chicago are without Nic Claxton, and Boston have several defenders who can pressure Josh Giddey. The price is too short to bet alone, but the Celtics are a safe leg in a multi.
How we’d play it
Cleveland head-to-head is the main bet at a normal stake. The Heat, Nuggets and Celtics are short prices that suit a multi rather than single bets. The Bucks are a small value bet, and it is worth checking whether Haliburton plays before the 11:00am AEDT tip-off. Keep the SGM stake small, and check Minnesota’s team news before the 10:00am AEDT start.
