Newcastle hosts a seven-race provincial card on Tuesday, starting at 1:50pm (Sydney and Melbourne time). It is a maiden-heavy first half followed by some handy sprints, and there are a couple of short-priced favourites that look hard to beat. Prices below were taken on Monday evening and will move.
Samaka in Race 2 and Slander in Race 5 are the two runners we trust most. Just Awesome in Race 4 is our headline bet, and Gold Cup in Race 1 is the value play. One thing to check on race morning: Lucsain is entered in Race 3 here and also at Goulburn, so make sure of where he lines up before betting.
Race 1 - New Era Technology Maiden Plate (1500m)
Selection: Gold Cup Current odds: $3.60
Gold Cup resumes but has done enough to suggest he is ready, with a third over this course last time and a second in a Wyong trial on 10 September. Dance With Destiny is the favourite after a second at Kembla Grange on a heavy track, though he has not shown much in trials and drops back in trip. Navy Slippers ran second at Hawkesbury and is the best of the rest at a price. Presumptuous Gal drops in class and distance and is a fair each-way chance.
Selections:
- Gold Cup - $3.60
- Dance With Destiny - $2.70
- Navy Slippers - $9.50
- Presumptuous Gal - $7.00
Race 2 - NZB Maiden Handicap (1250m)
Selection: Samaka Current odds: $1.95
Samaka was only a length off the winner when third at Warwick Farm and drops into a softer race here from barrier one. He should be up on the speed and is the one to beat, even first up. Star Half was narrowly beaten at Wyong and is the clear danger. Cool Summer Nights resumes after 24 weeks, but he placed first up last preparation so the break is no knock.
Selections:
- Samaka - $1.95
- Star Half - $3.60
- Cool Summer Nights - $8.00
- Zousari - $18.00
Race 3 - Horsepower Feeds And Supplements Maiden Handicap (900m)
Selection: Lucsain Current odds: $1.45
Lucsain was beaten a whisker at Canberra on debut and has the early speed to control a 900m sprint. The tongue tie goes on for the first time, which can help a young horse. The price is short, so he suits multis more than a straight win bet, and remember he is also entered at Goulburn. Miss Serengeti is a debutant by Too Darn Hot with blinkers on first time, so watch the betting. Long Live is better than his fifth here last time suggests and drops in weight.
Selections:
- Lucsain - $1.45
- Miss Serengeti - $7.00
- Long Live - $11.00
- Extreme Courage - $8.00
Race 4 - TAB Benchmark 68 Handicap (900m)
Selection: Just Awesome Current odds: $2.30
This looks a two-horse race between last-start course winners. Just Awesome led all the way to win by more than three lengths here last time, and Leeshelle Small’s claim takes more weight off his back. Generous Harry also won here last start and draws the rail, so the two of them could go hard early. We lean to Just Awesome at the slightly better price. Outback Angel has been off for 46 weeks but drops in grade and is the each-way roughie.
Selections:
- Just Awesome - $2.30
- Generous Harry - $1.90
- Outback Angel - $13.00
- Dis Is Heaven - $16.00
Race 5 - Dailey Family Funerals Midway Handicap (1250m)
Selection: Slander Current odds: $1.70
Slander won narrowly at Illawarra Grange last time and should be on or near the lead again. He is the most reliable runner of the race. Lawless Lucy was just behind him at the same meeting and gets a good gate first up, so she is the obvious danger. The Pacific was third in that same race and is the place hope.
Selections:
- Slander - $1.70
- Lawless Lucy - $3.80
- The Pacific - $8.00
- Autumn Flyer - $18.00
Race 6 - Drinkwise Provincial Maiden Plate (1300m)
Selection: Wan Lost Current odds: $3.30
Wan Lost was strong late when second at Tuncurry and should find a good spot from barrier two with Aaron Bullock riding. Bascilica Babe has improved with each run and was third at Hawkesbury, so she is the main danger. Dwight has speed but will need to cross from a very wide alley. River Jordan was well beaten here last time and is a roughie only.
Selections:
- Wan Lost - $3.30
- Bascilica Babe - $7.00
- Dwight - $7.00
- River Jordan - $12.00
Race 7 - Reward Hospitality Benchmark 64 Handicap (1500m)
Selection: Saint Emilion Current odds: $4.80
A more open finish to the day. Saint Emilion was seventh here last time but that run can be forgiven, and Aaron Bullock is booked again. Chestime has placed at both runs this campaign, including a third at Narromine, and looks the main threat despite a wide gate. Hellfire Express was tenth at Randwick but drops in grade and draws one. Danish Prince is a long shot dropping back to a suitable level.
Selections:
- Saint Emilion - $4.80
- Chestime - $6.50
- Hellfire Express - $8.50
- Danish Prince - $17.00
