Rosehill hosts a seven-race Wednesday card. The track should be a Good 4 with some chance of rain, and the rail is out 5m for the entire circuit. With that setup, horses that race in the first four, sit within about three lengths of the lead at the 600m and use the inside to middle lanes in the straight have the edge. We have leaned toward runners that map close to the speed.
Our standout is Affari in Race 2. Low Key in Race 1 is the most reliable runner on the card, but at $1.50 there is not much value in the price.
Race 1 (1400m)
Selection: Low Key Current odds: $1.50
Low Key trialled well and then ran a solid debut behind Threads, who has since won at Caulfield. She is second up and steps out to 1400m, and her inside draw should let her race on or near the speed. She is the right favourite, but the price is short, so she is better used in multis and quaddies than as a single bet. Snitzel’s Girl finished strongly last start behind a smart horse, also draws inside and has James McDonald riding. Iommi returns to Rosehill after a good run at Canterbury, with Nash Rawiller booked. Sapphire Legend is a first starter who has trialled well for Les Bridge, and the market will show whether he is expected to run well.
Selections:
- Low Key - $1.50
- Snitzel’s Girl - $11.00
- Iommi - $9.00
- Sapphire Legend - $9.50
Race 2 (1200m)
Selection: Affari Current odds: $2.50
Affari has run well in three straight starts without winning. The horses she has raced against have gone on to win, so her form stands up. McDonald is back on, she draws inside, and 1200m suits her, so this looks like her chance to break her maiden. This is our best bet of the day. Barracks is the clear danger. He has trialled well in good times and is first up with Rawiller riding, and Rawiller has been one of the most successful metro jockeys lately. This looks like a two-horse race. Geryon, a first starter, is a big price. He has trialled well, has some early speed and draws barrier 1.
Selections:
- Affari - $2.50
- Barracks - $3.10
- Geryon - $19.00
- Bravira - $15.00
Race 3
Selection: Siragusa Current odds: $7.50
This is an open race, so our pick is an each-way value play rather than a confident one. Siragusa chased hard when resuming, on a day when horses racing on the speed were favoured. He is second up with a good map, so he should run well at a decent price. Concrete Storm is the favourite and, along with Anthropoid, will be close to the lead. Anthropoid wears blinkers for the first time and is the one we like more of those two. Ertijaaj is an improving import who won well last start and has trialled quietly but well since.
Selections:
- Siragusa - $7.50
- Anthropoid - $4.20
- Ertijaaj - $4.40
- Concrete Storm - $2.90
Race 4 (2400m)
Selection: Kenmare Bay Current odds: $2.20
Kenmare Bay has run strong times in his last two starts and is deep into his preparation, so 2400m should suit him. He looks well placed by the O’Shea and Charlton stable to win for a second time this preparation. The stayers here are not strong, which also helps. Golden Century is the main danger, with McDonald riding at the same distance on his home track, although his form is inconsistent. County Kilkenny draws barrier 1 and should get a good run, but needs to improve. Spenzalot comes off a win and faces a harder race.
Selections:
- Kenmare Bay - $2.20
- Golden Century - $3.10
- County Kilkenny - $5.50
- Spenzalot - $6.50
Race 5 (1800m)
Selection: Think Itz You Current odds: $4.60
Think Itz You won easily at Newcastle over 1850m last start and looks to have improved. He drops back 50m here, but if he races on the speed he could be hard to catch. The warning sign is jockey choice. McDonald has ridden both Think Itz You and Standard Deviation, but chose Hallowed Halls. Hallowed Halls had no luck at Warwick Farm last start and gets a suitable map up in distance in a race with plenty of speed. Savagram drops in class and steps up in trip, and Aura finished well first up.
Selections:
- Think Itz You - $4.60
- Hallowed Halls - $5.50
- Savagram - $4.20
- Aura - $8.50
Race 6 (1300m)
Selection: Regal Problem Current odds: $2.50
Regal Problem has won his last two for Joe Pride. The latest win was the better one, because he was trapped wide on a day that favoured horses on the speed. He maps much closer this time and sets the standard. For a longer-priced option, Blitzgal is the each-way play. She caught the eye first up over 1100m, steps up to 1300m second up, draws well and has McDonald riding, so we like her as a place bet. Live came out of the same race and should improve with the extra distance for the Snowden stable.
Selections:
- Regal Problem - $2.50
- Blitzgal - $9.50
- Live - $8.00
- Chix - $11.00
Race 7 (1200m)
Selection: Lord Remlap Current odds: $3.40
This is a tricky race to finish the day, so we suggest small stakes. Lord Remlap won well first up. He carries 60kg this time, but he is the most proven runner in the field. Metallic Cat has plenty of ability, but from gate 13 he has to work hard to cross from the 1200m chute. That is why we prefer Lord Remlap at a similar price. Santana trialled well in a strong trial and gets a good map. West Of Dalby was very good two runs ago before a flat run last time, and the inside draw and return to 1200m give him a chance to bounce back.
Selections:
- Lord Remlap - $3.40
- Metallic Cat - $3.70
- Santana - $11.00
- West Of Dalby - $9.50
