Warrnambool runs eight races on Thursday, starting at 1:30pm. The card has three maidens, a 3100m highweight and four Benchmark 62 races. Prices are early markets from Wednesday night, so check them again before betting, along with the track rating and scratchings.
Our best bet is Black Peppermint in Race 2. The shortest favourite is Tuscan Rose in Race 3 at $1.50, which is too short for a single bet. The Cable Guy in the last is our each-way value.
Race 1 - Maiden Highweight Plate (1700m)
Selection: Enchilada Current odds: $1.85
Enchilada ran fifth at Seymour on debut and should improve with that run. The horse is trained by Patrick and Michelle Payne and ridden by Will Gordon, who have a good record together. The price is short for a horse having only a second start, so keep the stake small. Endless Fury and All Moonlite both made ground to run fifth at this track last start, and either could win if the favourite does not improve.
Selections:
- Enchilada - $1.85
- Endless Fury - $4.40
- All Moonlite - $5.00
- Pitman - $8.00
Race 2 - Benchmark 70 Highweight (3100m)
Selection: Black Peppermint Current odds: $2.80
Black Peppermint finished third at Geelong last start, beaten two and a quarter lengths, and was running on at the finish. Black Peppermint drops in grade here and has the inside barrier, so should get a run that saves ground over the 3100m. The quick back-up suggests the stable is happy with how the horse came through that race. This is our best bet of the day.
Hemi Two Barrell also drops in grade and has the speed to lead, and is the main danger. Motiver ran on for fourth at Mornington in a stronger race.
Selections:
- Black Peppermint - $2.80
- Hemi Two Barrell - $7.50
- Motiver - $9.00
- Legend Beast - $14.00
Race 3 - Maiden Plate (1200m)
Selection: Tuscan Rose Current odds: $1.50
Tuscan Rose went close on debut at this track and is the only one of the main chances with race experience. At $1.50 this is a multi leg and not a single bet. The next three in the market are all first starters from good stables. Thermic ran second in a Seymour trial on 11 September for the Paynes, Vulcana debuts for Ciaron Maher from a good barrier, and Rose Milla is with Tom Dabernig. Watch the betting on those three, because support for one of them would be a sign.
Selections:
- Tuscan Rose - $1.50
- Thermic - $4.80
- Vulcana - $5.50
- Rose Milla - $7.00
Race 4 - Maiden Plate (1200m)
Selection: Iron Stupa Current odds: $5.50
Iron Stupa ran second at Tatura last start, beaten half a length, and that is the best exposed form in the race. The favourite, Pastoral King, is a four-year-old first starter for Mitch Freedman, and Mr Cicconi is also on debut. We would rather take $5.50 about a horse with form that is already close to winning than take $3.10 about one who has not raced. Cool Aza Breeze ran on for third at Hamilton on debut and has drawn well.
Selections:
- Iron Stupa - $5.50
- Pastoral King - $3.10
- Cool Aza Breeze - $6.50
- Mr Cicconi - $5.00
Race 5 - Benchmark 62 (1200m)
Selection: Artistic Genius Current odds: $8.00
This is an open race with no clear favourite among the main chances. Artistic Genius won at this track last start, and a last-start course winner at $8 is worth an each-way bet. Celibate resumes after 18 weeks and ran third first-up last preparation. Moonraker has the speed to cross from a wide barrier, and Becauseyou’re Mine is proven at the distance.
Selections:
- Artistic Genius - $8.00
- Celibate - $5.50
- Moonraker - $6.00
- Becauseyou’re Mine - $7.50
Race 6 - Benchmark 62 (1000m)
Selection: Romantic Miss Current odds: $3.70
Romantic Miss ran third at Sandown last start, which is stronger form than this, and has the early speed to be near the lead over 1000m. The favourite, Du Clisson, is resuming from a break after finishing ninth at Caulfield Heath, so we prefer the runner who is already fit. Nordic Strike ran second at Geelong last start but has a wide barrier to overcome.
Selections:
- Romantic Miss - $3.70
- Du Clisson - $3.10
- Nordic Strike - $6.00
- Money Honey - $7.00
Race 7 - Benchmark 62 (1700m)
Selection: Crossoverkid Current odds: $5.00
Crossoverkid has been placed at both runs this preparation, has been freshened since running well at Seymour, and has drawn a good barrier. Just My Lot is the favourite after leading all the way to win by more than five lengths at Hamilton, but this is a harder race and an easy lead is less likely. Both Sides Now and Governor King both have blinkers on for the first time.
Selections:
- Crossoverkid - $5.00
- Just My Lot - $4.40
- Both Sides Now - $6.50
- Governor King - $8.50
Race 8 - Benchmark 62 (1400m)
Selection: The Cable Guy Current odds: $8.50
The Cable Guy has won the last two starts, the latest at Mildura when coming from behind. The rise in grade explains the $8.50, but a horse in winning form at that price is a fair each-way bet. Invisible Magic is the favourite for Ciaron Maher after a third at Bendigo and is the one to beat. Mr Sioux has raced well this preparation.
Selections:
- The Cable Guy - $8.50
- Invisible Magic - $3.90
- Mr Sioux - $5.50
- Shades Of Stardom - $15.00
