Best Bet
Under 181.5 total points at $1.90. This game is close to a coin-flip in the head-to-head market, so we would rather bet on the total. New Zealand concede a league-low 88.7 points a game, and Adelaide score a league-low 89.3. When these teams met earlier this month, they combined for only 160 points. We rate this as a solid bet but not a standout.
The reasoning
The Breakers are at home and back to full strength, with Parker Jackson-Cartwright returning. He was playing at an MVP level before his injury. Sam Mennenga has carried the scoring while Jackson-Cartwright was out, with recent totals of 40, 27, 36 and 22. New Zealand have beaten Adelaide twice this season, but have only two wins from their last five games.
Adelaide are narrow favourites, largely because of Bryce Cotton, who has scored 30+ points in three of his last four games. Even so, the 36ers’ offence has been the weakest in the league across the season. The Breakers also kept Cotton quiet in the earlier meeting.
The risk to the Under is a fast start from Jackson-Cartwright. He has made 21 threes across his last five games. Adelaide also managed only 30 second-half points in the first meeting and should shoot better this time. If both stars get hot early, this total can be beaten. That is why we are not rating it higher. We also stay away from the line, as the matchup is too close to call.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Under 181.5 total points - our Best Bet, built on the league’s best defence against the league’s lowest-scoring attack.
- Sam Mennenga 20+ points - he has passed 20 in each of his last four games.
- Bryce Cotton 20+ points - he has scored 30+ in three of his last four, so 20 gives some room for error.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Take the Under at a normal stake. The SGM relies on both stars scoring heavily in a low-scoring game. That is possible if the role players struggle, but keep the stake small. If you want a side bet, the market is close enough that we would leave the head-to-head alone. Tip-off is 5:30pm AEST (6:30pm AEDT) on Friday in Auckland.
