Best Bet
Brisbane Bullets to win at $1.87. The market rates this Queensland derby close to even, and so do we. We narrowly prefer Brisbane at home. Tyrell Harrison is back after an ankle injury and gives the Bullets a clear edge on the boards. Raul Neto has also had more time to settle in at point guard. This is a lean rather than a strong play, so keep the stake normal or slightly below.
The reasoning
Both teams are 4-4. Brisbane beat Illawarra 98-81 on the road on Saturday, which ended a 13-game away losing streak. They outscored the Hawks 58-36 in the paint, and Nate Hinton led the way with 21 points and six assists. That win came only days after a 106-85 loss in Tasmania, when Harrison and Arnas Velicka were both out. Velicka is still sidelined, but Neto has had 11 points and four assists in his first start. Jacob Holt and Sam McDaniel are also unavailable.
Brisbane lead the league with 47.5 rebounds a game. Cairns allow the most rebounds in the competition, at 47.0 a game. Harrison had 23 points and 18 rebounds, including nine offensive boards, in the first meeting this month. That is the clearest matchup edge in the game.
The concern is Brisbane’s record against Cairns and at home. The Taipans won the first meeting 97-91 in Cairns and have won six of the last seven matches between the clubs. Brisbane have also lost 16 of their last 20 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre. Cairns lead the NBL with 12.2 made threes a game. Jaylin Galloway had 18 points and six assists in his comeback against New Zealand, and Jack McVeigh and Jaylon Brown can both take over a game. If Cairns get hot from three-point range, Brisbane’s rebounding edge may not be enough. That is why we are not having a big bet.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Brisbane Bullets to win - our Best Bet, based on Harrison’s return and the home-court edge.
- Tyrell Harrison 10+ rebounds - Harrison had 18 against Cairns this month, and the Taipans give up more rebounds than any other team.
- Nate Hinton 10+ points - Hinton has scored in double figures in all eight games this season and had 21 last start.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Back the Bullets head-to-head at a normal stake. The SGM is a smaller bet built around Brisbane’s rebounding edge. If you would rather avoid picking a winner, Harrison 10+ rebounds is our pick of the player props on its own. Tip-off is 7:30pm AEST (8:30pm AEDT) on Thursday in Brisbane.
