The tip
New Zealand Breakers -4.5 at $1.94. The Breakers are on a two-game losing run, but both losses were close. At home in Auckland against a Cairns team that has struggled to defend, we expect them to win by five or more.
The reasoning
The Breakers’ losing run looks worse than it is. Last weekend they led Perth at half-time in Perth before losing by four points. That is good enough form to beat Cairns. Parker Jackson-Cartwright has started the season in excellent form, scoring 29, 23, 26 and 30 in his recent games, and he controls the tempo of the Breakers’ attack. Sam Mennenga scored 27 in the opening game but only 12 in each of his last two. Against a small Cairns frontcourt, he has a good chance to bounce back.
Cairns have lost four of their last five games. Their defence has been the problem, with Sydney and then Adelaide both scoring heavily against them, and they do not have a strong inside defender. Spark Arena is also one of the hardest places in the league for visiting teams. The Breakers are the defending Ignite Cup champions, and this game starts this season’s competition.
The Breakers do have a weakness. They rely heavily on Jackson-Cartwright, and if Cairns can slow him down, the Breakers do not have a reliable second ball-handler. That is the main reason we rate this as a medium-confidence bet rather than a standout.
Main danger: Cairns shoot well from outside, and Jackson-Cartwright gets little help, which keeps the game within a basket or two late.
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Breakers -4.5 at $1.94.
- Safer option: Some bookmakers have offered Breakers -3.5 at around $1.85. If you can find that line, the extra point is worth the shorter price.
- Total: These teams combined for 199 points in their last meeting, and Cairns are conceding heavily, so the over is worth considering if the total is in the low 180s.
- Tip-off is 5:30pm AEST.
