Best Bet
South East Melbourne Phoenix +3.5 at $1.90. United are the better team on paper, but they are playing their third game in nine days and travelled to Adelaide on Wednesday. The Phoenix have had a full week to prepare at home. We think this is close, and the 3.5-point start is the safer way to back the Phoenix. This is a medium-strength bet.
The reasoning
United thrashed the Phoenix 86-61 in Round 2, and that result is a big reason they are favourites. Since then they have been inconsistent. Cairns scored 107 points against them, and Tasmania beat them 84-82 at home. They did win 96-91 in Adelaide on Wednesday, but they let a 20-point lead get down to three in the last quarter.
The Phoenix have been up and down too, but their last game was their best. They beat Illawarra 113-96, made 16 three-pointers and had 23 assists. Nathan Sobey scored 24 after a slow start to the season, and Dash Daniels added 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists off the bench.
Both teams have scored about 91 points a game this season. Four of the last five meetings have gone under the total, and the Phoenix have the worst three-point shooting percentage in the league, at 28.1%. We expect a lower-scoring game, which suits the team getting a start.
Main danger: United have won four of the last five meetings, and Cole Anthony can win a game by himself. If the Phoenix go cold from three again, United could cover easily. The Phoenix are without Daniel Foster and Hunter Goodrick, and United are missing Chris Goulding and Sean Macdonald.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- South East Melbourne Phoenix +3.5 - fresher team at home in a game the market rates as close.
- Luke Travers 7+ rebounds - he has had 7 or more in three of his five games, including his last two.
- Under 189.5 total points - four of the last five meetings went under, and the Phoenix are the worst three-point shooting team in the league.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Phoenix +3.5 at $1.90.
- Value option: The Phoenix head to head is around $2.15 to $2.40 for anyone who thinks they win outright.
- SGM: Small stake only.
- Tip-off is 7:30pm AEDT on Saturday at John Cain Arena.
