Best Bet
Will Magnay 15+ points at $1.80. We do not have a strong view on which team wins this game, but we do like Magnay’s matchup against a poor Illawarra defence. This is a medium-strength bet. He should get plenty of shots near the basket against a weak interior defence.
The reasoning
The market has Tasmania slightly favoured at $1.80, with the Hawks $2.00 at home and the line at 1.5 points. That is fair. Tasmania are 3-1 and have won three in a row, but they played an overtime game in Brisbane last start and are short of players. Bryce Hamilton, Anthony Drmic and Majok Deng are out, and Ben Ayre is in doubt. Illawarra are 1-4 and very inconsistent. They beat Adelaide by 22, then lost to the Phoenix 113-96. Mason Peatling and Todd Blanchfield are also expected to miss for the Hawks.
Illawarra’s defence is the main reason for our bet. The Hawks have conceded 100 or more points in four straight games. They are allowing a league-high 104.8 points per game, and opponents are shooting 47.5% from the field against them.
Magnay is averaging 17.5 points this season. He scored 22 points, with nine rebounds and four blocks, in the overtime win in Brisbane. With injuries limiting Tasmania’s other options, he is a key part of their attack. His matchup with Sam Froling will be important, and Froling has had a quiet start to the season.
The Hawks have won the past three games between these teams. That includes a 103-70 win in Tasmania in February, so do not be surprised if Illawarra win at home. That is why we prefer a player bet to picking a winner.
Main danger: Tasmania usually play at a slow pace, and one model has the Hawks scoring fewer than 96 points. A slower game would mean fewer scoring chances for Magnay. Also watch for any late injury news, with both teams short of players.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Will Magnay 15+ points - averaging 17.5 points against a defence allowing 47.5% shooting.
- Total points over 188.5 - Illawarra games are averaging 202 points, and four of their five have gone over.
- Milton Doyle 14+ points - he had 14 points and 11 assists against the Phoenix and leads an Illawarra side averaging a league-high 22.4 assists.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Magnay 15+ points at $1.80.
- Alternative: If you would rather bet on the total, Over 188.5 at $1.90 is the best alternative. Tasmania play slowly, so it is not as safe as the Magnay bet.
- SGM: Small stake only. All three legs need a fast game.
- Tip-off is 7:30pm AEDT on Friday at WIN Entertainment Centre in Wollongong.
