Best Bet
Los Angeles Dodgers to win at about $1.79. The Dodgers are on the road and a game down, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a proven postseason starter, and that is enough for us to back them to level the series. The price is the market’s implied chance of about 56 per cent, and we rate them closer to 60.
The reasoning
Yamamoto is the whole story here. The Dodgers have won ten of his eleven postseason starts over the past three years, and across those 63 innings he has held hitters to a .225 wOBA with a 3.21 expected ERA. He has been just as good against Milwaukee, allowing only a .283 expected wOBA and very little power over his career. This October he is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA.
Logan Henderson starts for the Brewers and his playoff debut was a worry. He gave up three walks in five innings and the underlying numbers (a 4.22 expected ERA and a 5.71 expected FIP) were a lot worse than his 1.80 ERA suggests. Walks are the last thing you want to give a Dodgers lineup that led the majors against right-handed pitching in the regular season and again in the playoffs.
The Brewers are not a pushover. They rate second and third in the same hitting measures against righties, which is why they are still playing, and one game decides very little in a seven-game series. The roof is open at American Family Field today, with mild, summer-like weather and a light cross breeze. First pitch is 8:00 am AEDT.
Both lineups hit right-handers well, so we expect runs. The market has the total at 6.5, with the Over rated at about 55 per cent, and that is the angle we have used in the multi below.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Dodgers to win - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Over 6.5 total runs - two of the best lineups in the game against right-handed starters, and Henderson was shaky last time out.
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI - he has five hits, three runs and two RBI in five playoff games, and a .416 expected wOBA across his last 35 postseason games.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
The Dodgers moneyline is the main bet and the one to back with a normal stake. The SGM is a smaller bet that suits the idea of a high-scoring Dodgers win, and Freeman is the leg most likely to cash if the Dodgers lose a close one. If you want a bigger price on one player, Shohei Ohtani is still searching for his first home run of this postseason and the market rates him at about 27 per cent to hit one today. That is a side bet, not a core play.
Check the starting lineups before first pitch, and always confirm the price with your bookmaker.
