Best Bet
Cleveland Guardians to win at $2.21. This is a value bet rather than a strong one. Cleveland won the opener 7-3 and are still priced at about a 45 per cent chance. We rate this game closer to even, so the underdog price looks worth taking.
The reasoning
Cleveland came into this series in form. They came back from 0-2 to knock out the White Sox, then won Game 1 of the ALCS 7-3 at Tropicana Field. Even so, the market still has Tampa Bay as favourites for Game 2, and about 70 per cent of public picks are on the Rays. We think that is too much respect for the home side, given how well the Guardians are playing.
The other angle is the total, set at 6.5 to 7 runs. The Under has hit in eight of the last ten meetings in Tampa, in the Rays’ last four games as favourites, and in eight of their last nine League Championship games. Runs have generally been hard to come by in this matchup at this ground.
The starting pitchers had not been confirmed when we wrote this, which is why we have kept our confidence moderate. Check the starters before you bet. A big mismatch on the mound would change this view.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (2 legs):
- Cleveland Guardians to win - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Total runs Under 7 - the Under has a strong record in this matchup at Tropicana Field and in the Rays’ recent playoff games.
We have kept this to two legs. With no confirmed starters or reliable player lines, we didn’t have a third leg we were confident in.
Combined price: $3.60
How we’d play it
Cleveland at $2.21 is a smaller-than-normal bet that relies on value. Back the Under as a single only once the starters are known. The two-leg SGM suits a tight, low-scoring Cleveland win, which is how we expect a Guardians win to look.
First pitch is 11:00am AEDT on Wednesday.
