Best Bet
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at about $1.92. Caminero bats in the middle of the Rays lineup and faces a left-hander who has been hit by right-handers. The market has this at about 52 per cent, and we rate it nearer 58.
The reasoning
The Rays are home favourites for the ALCS opener and Cleveland starts left-hander Foster Griffin. Griffin had a 4.57 expected ERA and a 4.03 expected FIP against right-handed hitters, which is exactly the kind of matchup Caminero likes. Against left-handed pitching in the regular season he posted a .390 wOBA with a .204 ISO, and in the playoffs he is sitting on a .351 expected wOBA and a .266 expected ISO.
A hits + runs + RBI line is a good way to back a hot hitter without needing a home run. Caminero can get there with a single and a run scored, or with one big hit, and batting high in the order gives him plenty of chances.
There is a small catch in the multi below. If Caminero and the Rays hit Griffin hard early, Cleveland may pull him sooner, which works against the outs leg. We are comfortable with that, because Griffin is rested and the Guardians have a lot of reasons to want length from him (more on that below).
First pitch is 11:00 am AEDT at Tropicana Field.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts - he struck out ten Yankees last time out, has a strikeout rate of 26 per cent across 30 starts and has held the Guardians to a .211 expected wOBA. He also starts on extra rest, so he should go deep.
- Foster Griffin Over 13.5 outs recorded - the Rays were 27th in wOBA and 30th in ISO against left-handers in the regular season, he threw only 2 2/3 innings on 7 October, and he has gone five innings or more in six of his nine starts for Cleveland. The Guardians also leaned on their bullpen for 27 innings in the ALDS and will want length from him.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Caminero alone is the main bet, with a normal stake. The SGM is a smaller bet that suits a game where both starters have a decent outing, with Caminero doing the damage for Tampa Bay. Rasmussen’s strikeouts and Griffin’s outs both rely on a starter getting through the lineup, so a quick hook for either would hurt two legs at once.
Check the lineups and the starters before first pitch, and always confirm the price with your bookmaker.
