Best Bet
Adelaide 36ers -6.5 at $1.90. Adelaide are one of the best teams in the league so far and Illawarra have not won a game. This is one of our stronger NBL bets of the round.
The reasoning
The 36ers have won two of their three games. Their only loss was to Perth on a last-second shot. They beat Melbourne United 97-95, which is the best win any team has had so far this season, and they beat Cairns by 14.
Bryce Cotton has scored 29, 35 and 25 points in his three games. Nick Rakocevic has given him good support, with 20 or more points in each of his last two games.
Illawarra have lost all three of their games, to the Breakers by 14, the Bullets by 8 and the Kings by 21. The Kings scored 121 points against them last start and the Bullets scored 103, so the defence is the main problem. Coach Justin Tatum is under pressure to fix it quickly. A team that is giving up that many points now has to guard Cotton.
Main danger: This is a home game for a Hawks side that badly needs a win, and they have enough scoring of their own to make it a shootout. Tyler Harvey took only five shots last game. If he gets going early, Illawarra could stay within the line.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Adelaide 36ers -6.5 - the form gap between the two teams is wide, and the Hawks have lost by an average of more than 14 points.
- Nick Rakocevic 20+ points - he has reached 20 in two straight games and faces a defence that has conceded 121 and 103 in its last two.
- Total points over 185.5 - the Hawks’ games have been high scoring, mostly because of how many points they are giving up.
Some multis for this game add Tyler Harvey 15+ points as a fourth leg. We have left it out, because he took only five shots last start and we would want to see him more involved first.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: 36ers -6.5 at $1.90.
- Bigger price: 36ers to win by 11 or more is $2.65. Two of the Hawks’ three losses have been by more than that.
- SGM: Small stake. The over is the weakest leg if Adelaide get well in front and both teams rest their starters late.
- Tip-off is 7:30pm AEST on Friday. Check the final team lists before betting, and if Cotton is a late withdrawal, do not bet the line.
