Best Bet
Melbourne United -4.5 at $1.90. United are the better team right now and the JackJumpers are dealing with injuries. It is a road game in Hobart, which is never easy, so we rate this a solid bet and not a standout.
The reasoning
United lost their opening game to Adelaide 97-95, and the 36ers have since shown that they are one of the better teams in the league. United then beat South East Melbourne 86-61 last week, holding the Phoenix to 61 points.
Cole Anthony is the main reason to back them. The former NBA guard has scored 48 points in his first two NBL games, including 30 in the opener, and he did that without playing full minutes. His minutes are expected to go up on Thursday. Chris Goulding also found his shot against the Phoenix with 17 points.
Tasmania lost to Cairns last week. That result looks worse when you consider that the Taipans had given up 111 points to Sydney in their previous game. The JackJumpers have had injury problems, and although Taran Armstrong, David Johnson and Will Magnay are all good players, the group has not played well together yet.
Main danger: MyState Bank Arena is a hard place for visiting teams, and United do not have much depth in some positions. If Anthony has a quiet night or gets into foul trouble, 4.5 points is enough for Tasmania to stay inside the line.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Melbourne United -4.5 - the better side in form, against a team that lost to Cairns and is managing injuries.
- Cole Anthony 20+ points - he has 48 points in two games on limited minutes and should play more here.
- Chris Goulding 15+ points - he scored 17 last week and looked to be back in shooting rhythm.
Some multis for this game add total points over 182.5 as a fourth leg. We have left it out. United’s win over the Phoenix finished with only 147 points in total, and their defence is a big part of why we like them.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: United -4.5 at $1.90.
- Bigger price: United to win by 11 or more is $3.10. They won by 25 last week, so it is possible, but keep the stake small.
- SGM: Small stake only. All three legs rely on United’s guards playing well, so if Anthony is restricted, the whole multi is likely to lose.
- Tip-off is 7:30pm AEST on Thursday. Check the JackJumpers’ final team list before betting, because their injury situation is the key to this game.
