The tip
Sydney Kings -6.5 at $1.90. Both teams are 2-0, but the Kings have won much more convincingly. At home against a Brisbane side that has not yet played a strong opponent, we think the reigning champions can win by seven or more.
The reasoning
Sydney have won their first two games by a combined 42 points, beating Cairns 110-90 and then Illawarra 121-100 on Sunday. They are averaging more than 115 points a game. Kendric Davis scored 31 against the Hawks, Torrey Craig added 20 and Andrew Carr took 12 rebounds. Their depth is the main reason they are favourites again this season.
Brisbane are also unbeaten after wins over the Breakers and the Hawks, the second by 103-95. Import guard Arnas Velicka has been excellent at running their offence and setting up teammates. However, the teams they have beaten were a travel-weary New Zealand side and an Illawarra team that Sydney then beat by 21. This is Brisbane’s first real test. It is also a return to Sydney for Bullets coach Will Weaver, who used to coach the Kings.
The main factor against the Kings is the schedule. They are playing three days after Sunday’s game, while Brisbane have had five days off. We think Sydney’s depth covers that. They also have several strong perimeter defenders who can take turns guarding Velicka, and if he is kept quiet, Brisbane will struggle to score enough. Sydney have also had the better of this matchup recently, including a 40-point win last season.
Main danger: Brisbane’s extra rest shows in the final quarter, and Velicka keeps them close. A 6.5-point line means a close game is a loss even if the Kings win, so this is a medium-confidence bet rather than a standout.
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Kings -6.5 at $1.90.
- Safer option: Kings head-to-head is around $1.40 and works better in a multi than on its own.
- Total: The total is 194.5 points, which is high by NBL standards. Given how freely Sydney are scoring, we lean slightly to the over, but it is not strong enough for a separate bet.
- Check team news before tip-off at 7:30pm AEST. Because of the short break, any late rest for a Kings starter would change our view.
