Best Bet
Cairns Taipans to win at $1.90. The market can’t split these two, but Cairns are at home and come in off their best performance of the season. Brisbane have lost their last two games. This is a medium-strength bet, not one of our strongest, because this looks like a close game.
The reasoning
Both teams have won one of their last three games, but they are heading in different directions. Cairns beat a strong Melbourne United side 107-95 last week. Before that they scored only 75 and 69 points in two losses, so getting back to around 100 points is a big change. If the Taipans keep scoring like that, they are a hard team to beat in Cairns.
Brisbane started well with home wins over the Breakers and the Hawks, but they have since lost to the Kings and the JackJumpers. Two losses in a week is a worry, and now they have to travel north for the first Queensland derby of the season.
Keanu Pinder was the key man against United with 27 points after a slow start to the season. Jack McVeigh added 20, and he is a scorer who could take more shots if he wanted to. When both of them are scoring, Cairns have plenty of points on the floor.
Most of the early money has come for the Taipans, and they could be outright favourites by tip-off. We would take $1.90 now rather than wait.
Main danger: The win over United was one game. If Cairns go back to scoring in the 70s like they did in their two losses, Brisbane’s better start to the season could show. Check the team lists before tip-off.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Cairns Taipans to win - in form after beating United, at home, and the market is moving their way.
- Keanu Pinder 15+ points - scored 27 against United and is a big part of the Taipans attack.
- Total points over 184.5 - both attacks have improved, and Cairns scored 107 last start.
If you want a bigger price, Jack McVeigh 20+ points is a possible fourth leg after he scored 20 against United. That takes the combined price to $13, but he has only reached 20 once in the games we have looked at, so it adds more risk.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Taipans head to head at $1.90.
- Value option: Taipans to win by 1-10 points at $3.25 fits our view of a close home win, so it is worth a small stake.
- SGM: Small stake only. Leave out the McVeigh leg unless you want the bigger price.
- Tip-off is 7:30pm Queensland time on Thursday at the Cairns Convention Centre.
