Best Bet
Perth Wildcats to win at $2.06. The Phoenix are favourites, but we think the market has this one the wrong way around. The Wildcats are playing much better than they were in Round 1 and they are at home. We rate this as a solid bet, not one of our strongest, because the Phoenix already beat Perth comfortably in Perth this season.
The reasoning
These two teams opened the season against each other at RAC Arena, and the Phoenix won by 21. Teenager Dash Daniels was the star that night with 24 points and 12 rebounds. That result is the main reason South East Melbourne are favourites again.
A lot has changed in the two weeks since. Perth have won their last two games. They beat Adelaide with a shot right on the buzzer, which is a strong result given how well the 36ers have played, and then came from behind to beat the Breakers. Elijah Pepper has scored 25 points in each of those wins, and Dylan Windler had 26 in his most recent game.
The Phoenix have gone the other way. They lost 86-61 to Melbourne United last start and made only 4 of their 41 three-point attempts. A team that shot that badly does not usually fix it on a long trip to Perth in front of a full house.
The betting has also moved toward Perth. The Phoenix opened as clear favourites, but most of the late money has come for the Wildcats.
Main danger: The Phoenix have already shown they can beat Perth in this building. If their shooting returns to normal and Daniels plays the way he did in Round 1, they are good enough to win.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (4 legs):
- Perth Wildcats to win - better recent form, home court and a Phoenix side coming off a poor shooting night.
- Elijah Pepper 20+ points - he has scored 25 in each of his last two games and is Perth’s main scorer.
- Dylan Windler 15+ points - he scored 26 last game and is playing with more confidence each week.
- Total points under 188.5 - the Round 1 meeting finished with 179 points in total, and the Phoenix scored just 61 against United.
This is a four-leg multi, so it is a lot harder to land than the Best Bet. Keep the stake small.
Combined price: $13
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Wildcats to win at $2.06.
- Value option: Wildcats to win by 1-10 points is $3.40. If Perth win, we expect it to be close, because the Phoenix should play better than they did against United.
- SGM: Small stake only. The under is the leg most at risk if both teams shoot well.
- Tip-off is 9:30pm AEST on Friday at RAC Arena. Check the team lists before betting.
