Best Bet
Bryce Cotton 30+ points at $1.80. Cotton leads the NBL in scoring at 27.7 points a game and has gone even higher lately, averaging 32.5 over his last four with three games of 30 or more. Illawarra concede 103.7 points a game, the most in the league. In the October meeting, which the Hawks won 114-92, Cotton took only four shots in 30 minutes. Adelaide will want to get the ball to him far more this time. This is our strongest angle in the game.
The reasoning
Adelaide have had a poor start. They have won four of 11 games and only one of four at home, and they have lost two of their last three. Their attack ranks ninth at 91.0 points a game, but they are second in assists and are reasonable in defence, giving up 93.7 points a game. At home against the league’s worst defence, this is a good chance for them to get back on track, and we lean towards Adelaide winning.
Illawarra are 4-8 but have won their last two, including Thursday’s win in Cairns. They score freely, averaging 97.0 points a game (second in the NBL), so they can keep the game close if Adelaide start slowly. Makur Maker has scored 20 or more in three of his last four games and missed the October meeting, which gives the Hawks an extra scorer this time. Illawarra have won the last two meetings, but Adelaide won the four before that.
The main risk to the Best Bet is the game script. If Adelaide get a big lead, Cotton could sit out part of the final quarter. Given their record this season, a big lead is not something we expect.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Adelaide 36ers to win - they are at home against a side that concedes the most points in the league, and they need a result after losing two of their last three.
- Bryce Cotton 30+ points - he is averaging 32.5 points over his last four games and faces the weakest defence in the NBL.
- Over 49.5 first-quarter points - three of Adelaide’s last four first quarters have passed this mark, and Illawarra average 97.0 points a game.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Cotton 30+ points at a normal stake is the main bet. Makur Maker 20+ points is a good second option given his recent form. Keep the SGM stake small, because both teams have been inconsistent this season. Tip-off is 5:30pm AEDT (5:00pm local time) on Saturday at the Adelaide Entertainment Centre.
