Best Bet
Brisbane Bullets +11.5 at $1.90. Melbourne United are favourites for good reasons. They have won three in a row, they are well rested and they have beaten Brisbane 17 times in the last 18 meetings. But 11.5 points is a big start. United are only 2-3 at home this season, and the last two meetings were decided by five and six points. Brisbane have won three of their last four, scoring 96 points against Adelaide and 109 against Perth. We expect United to win, but by less than 12.
The reasoning
United are 6-5 and playing well. They beat New Zealand 94-74 on Monday, with Cole Anthony scoring 21 and Josh Oduro collecting 17 points and 19 rebounds. Their defence has allowed 90.8 points a game, third-best in the league. They have also had five days to prepare, while Brisbane have played twice since Sunday. Sean Macdonald is their only long-term absentee.
Brisbane are also 6-5. Seven players scored in double figures in Wednesday’s 109-104 win over Perth, and they led by 27 at one stage before Perth came back. That fade is a fair concern on a short turnaround. Raul Neto sat out the second half against Perth with tightness, which the coach called precautionary, and Max Mackinnon has to clear concussion protocols. Arnas Velicka, Sam McDaniel and Jacob Holt are still out.
The key matchup is on the boards. Brisbane average a league-high 16.9 offensive rebounds a game, and United allow 14.5, the most in the NBL. Second-chance points are how Brisbane can stay close. The main risk is that their thin rotation tires late, as it nearly did against Perth.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Melbourne United to win - they have won three straight, are better rested and have dominated this matchup.
- Brisbane Bullets +11.5 - United’s 2-3 home record and the close recent meetings suggest a single-digit margin.
- Tyrell Harrison 10+ rebounds - he has reached double-figure rebounds three times this season, has had 11 in two of his last three games against Melbourne, and United concede the most offensive rebounds in the league.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Brisbane at the line is the main bet at a normal stake. The first two SGM legs together mean United winning by one to 11 points, which is the result we think is most likely. Harrison’s rebounds are the hardest leg to land, so keep the stake small. If Neto is ruled out before tip-off, reduce the stake on the line bet. Tip-off is 7:30pm AEDT on Saturday at John Cain Arena.
