Best Bet
Over 200.5 total points at $1.90. South East Melbourne score 97.1 points a game, one of the highest totals in the league. Illawarra concede 103.8 a game, the most in the NBL, and opponents shoot 49.4% from the field against them. Four of the last five games between these teams have gone over 200.5 points. Neither team has defended well this season, and this is one of our stronger plays of the round.
The reasoning
The Phoenix are 4-7 and have lost their last two, including a home loss to an injury-hit Tasmania. Their attack is still dangerous. Nathan Sobey scored a season-high 33 points with six three-pointers against Sydney, and Angus Glover, Skylar Mays and D’Shawn Schwartz can all score heavily. Their problem has been defence, and coach Josh King will want a tighter effort at home.
Illawarra started their title defence poorly, then won on the road at Perth and Cairns before Adelaide beat them easily last Saturday. Kelan Martin, Tyler Harvey and Makur Maker give them plenty of scoring, and William Hickey had 12 assists last time out, equalling his career best. Their defence is still a problem, especially against teams with several scoring options.
Wani Swaka Lo Buluk is likely to guard Sobey. That should leave more shots for Glover on the perimeter and Schwartz near the basket. The main risk to the over is a slow, scrappy game, but neither side has shown the defence this season to keep the score down.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Over 200.5 total points - four of the last five meetings went over, and Illawarra have the worst defence in the league.
- Angus Glover 3+ three-pointers - he has averaged seven three-point attempts over his last three games and made at least three in two of his last five.
- D’Shawn Schwartz 15+ points - Illawarra have struggled to stop opposition big men, and Schwartz should get chances if they focus on Sobey.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Back the over at a normal stake. The two player props are more speculative and better as small bets or in the multi than as big single bets. If you want a side, the Phoenix at home have the deeper scoring group, but recent form is too mixed for a confident head-to-head bet. Tip-off is 7:30pm AEDT on Wednesday at the State Basketball Centre in Melbourne.
