Best Bet
Sydney Kings -6.5 at $1.90. Sydney top the ladder at 7-3 and have won 13 of their last 14 home games. They lead the NBL in points scored (97.9 a game) and field-goal percentage (49.2%), and they also concede the fewest points (88.1). South East Melbourne are 4-6, have won only one of four away games, and have lost their last four games decided by seven points or fewer. Sydney also come home after two road wins last weekend. This is one of our stronger plays of the round.
The reasoning
Sydney beat Perth 99-91 and then Tasmania 71-68 less than 48 hours later. That second win showed they can also win a low-scoring, physical game. Kendric Davis is averaging 21.6 points and 8.2 assists, Torrey Craig 18.0 points at 37% from three, and Makuach Maluach 13.9 points. Xavier Cooks gives them an edge on the boards. Matthew Dellavedova may return from injury, which would help them defend South East Melbourne’s guards.
The Phoenix have plenty of scoring, at 96.9 points a game (second in the league), but they concede 94.3. Last Sunday they lost 98-89 at home to a short-handed Tasmania after trailing by 22. Nathan Sobey averages 17.0 points, Angus Glover 14.4 and Dash Daniels 12.6, and D’Shawn Schwartz scored 27 in that loss. Their fast, three-point-heavy style can keep them in games when the shots fall, and that is the main risk to the line.
Recent meetings have been high scoring. The last five totals were 202, 241, 207, 195 and 211, and both teams score freely this season.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Sydney Kings to win - they have won 13 of their last 14 at home and have the best defence in the league, against a Phoenix side that struggles on the road.
- Over 192.5 total points - all of the last five meetings passed this total, and these are the two highest-scoring teams in the NBL.
- Kendric Davis 25+ points - he has scored 25 or more in each of his last four games against South East Melbourne.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Sydney at the line is the main bet at a normal stake. Over 192.5 points is a good second bet on its own, although Sydney’s defence could hold the score down, as it did in Launceston. Nathan Sobey 25+ points is a speculative extra, since he has averaged 25 in his last five games against Sydney but only 17 this season. Tip-off is 3:00pm AEDT on Sunday in Sydney.
