Best Bet
Chicago Bears -2.5 at $1.90. Chicago’s running game has been one of the best in the league, while Green Bay have struggled to run the ball. The Bears have won the last two meetings, including last season’s wild card game. This is a medium-strength bet because we expect a close game.
The reasoning
The Bears beat the Jets 23-12 last week, ran 89 plays and gained 232 rushing yards. Tyson Bagent is at quarterback, and Chicago does not need him to do much if the running game keeps working like that.
Green Bay are 2-2 and did not look good in their only home game. Their running game has struggled, and the defence is giving up 26.2 points a game. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper is on injured reserve, which hurts them against a team that wants to run.
Chicago knocked Green Bay out of the playoffs in January, 31-27, and have won the last two meetings. The line is small enough that the Bears only need to win by a field goal.
Main danger: Lambeau Field is a tough place to win, and some respected judges have this as a one-point game. If the Packers get their running game going, this could go either way. D’Andre Swift was limited at training, so check the injury reports on Saturday morning.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Chicago Bears to win - better form and a much better running game.
- Chicago Bears 20+ points - Green Bay are giving up 26.2 points a game.
- Over 40.5 total points - the projections we have seen range from 45 to 47 points, so this lower line gives some room.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Bears -2.5 at $1.90.
- SGM: Small stake only. The over leg depends on the Packers scoring too.
- Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday at Lambeau Field.
