Best Bet
Miami Dolphins +7.5 at $1.90. This is a bet against the margin, not on Miami to win. The Bengals should win, but they have lost their last two games as favourites, and their top two receivers are both injury doubts. Giving away more than a touchdown is too much. This is a medium-strength bet.
The reasoning
Miami are 0-4, but they did not play badly last week. They gained more yards per play than Minnesota and still lost. Ollie Gordon also ran for 100 yards on nine carries, so the running game gives them something to work with.
Cincinnati are 2-2, but they lost to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville in the last two weeks. Ja’Marr Chase is in concussion protocol, and Tee Higgins has missed training with an adductor injury. Without both of them, the Bengals attack is much less dangerous.
Miami’s defence is still poor, giving up 25.2 points a game, so Joe Burrow should find points. The projections we have seen have Cincinnati winning by about three points, well inside the line.
Main danger: If Chase and Higgins both play, Cincinnati could win easily. The injury reports come out on Saturday morning our time, so check them before you bet.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Cincinnati Bengals to win - the better team, even with injuries.
- Miami Dolphins +7.5 - the projections have this as a three-point game.
- Over 42.5 total points - Miami give up 25.2 a game, and the projections we have seen are between 45 and 47 points.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Dolphins +7.5 at $1.90.
- SGM: Small stake only. Wait for the Chase news if you can.
- Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday at Hard Rock Stadium.
