The Saints are giving up 32 points a game but have scored at least 24 in every match, so we expect more points than the market has allowed when the unbeaten Vikings visit New Orleans.
The 49ers are 4-0 and scoring 30.5 points a game, yet they are still underdogs in Seattle, so we take San Francisco at $2.34 in the game of the week.
The Bears ran for 232 yards last week and face a Packers side that cannot run the ball, so we back Chicago to cover a small line at Lambeau.
Cincinnati have lost two straight as favourites and Ja'Marr Chase is in concussion protocol, so we take winless Miami with a 7.5-point start.
The Chargers are 0-4 but have won three of their last four meetings with Denver, and the Broncos are slow starters, so we take Los Angeles at home with a 3.5-point start.
The Browns have won three straight and the Jets managed just 157 yards last week without Breece Hall to come back, so Cleveland are value as underdogs at $2.10.
Arizona were last in the league for net yards per play coming into last week and Dan Campbell's Lions usually respond after a loss, so we back Detroit to cover 4.5.
Atlanta have scored 80 points in their last two games and Baltimore average 29 a game, so we back the over in Sunday night's game while Lamar Jackson's ankle is in doubt.
Both teams are 0-4 and Houston have not covered a line all season, so we take the Titans with a 7.5-point start at home.
Every Cowboys game has gone over this season and the Buccaneers have injuries in the secondary on a short week, so the total is our play on Thursday Night Football.
The Lions have the more efficient offence and every one of their games has been high scoring, so we are backing Detroit to win in Carolina and building the SGM around their attack.
The reigning champion Seahawks are at home against a winless Chargers side, and we are prepared to give 7.5 points, although this is not a bet to go big on.
The Vikings are 3-0 and the Dolphins are conceding almost 29 points a game, so we would rather play the low total of 38.5 than lay 10.5 points.
Both defences are giving up more than 30 points a game and every Commanders game has gone over, so the total is our play in London, with the Colts the slight pick to win.
The unbeaten Bills average almost 34 points a game and the Patriots have not reached 21 in any game, so we lay the 6.5 points with Buffalo at home.
The 49ers are 3-0, scoring almost 33 points a game and have not allowed a sack, so we are happy to give the Broncos 2.5 points at Levi's Stadium.
Our sources split on who wins this NFC South rivalry, but they agree the total is too high, so the under 48.5 is our play in New Orleans.
The Rams are 1-2 but have played better than their record, and the Eagles' offence is near the bottom of the league, so we take Los Angeles to win in Philadelphia and leave the 3.5-point line alone.
Every AFC North team is 2-1, and the Steelers look the better side after a strong win over Cincinnati, but this is a small-stakes bet in a short-week divisional game with a low total.
Chicago are down to a backup quarterback, possibly one who has not played since 2023, while unbeaten Philadelphia have injuries of their own, so we back the Eagles to win rather than to cover a big line.
