Best Bet
Detroit Lions -4.5 at $1.90. Detroit have not covered a line this season, but this is a good matchup for them. Arizona are 1-3 and were last in the league for net yards per play coming into last week. Dan Campbell’s Lions usually play well after a loss. This is one of our stronger NFL bets this week.
The reasoning
The Lions are the better team and should score plenty here. Every Detroit game this season has gone over the total. The projections we have seen have them scoring between 27 and 35 points.
Arizona are scoring 21.8 points a game. That is not enough to keep up with a Detroit attack that has been in shootouts every week. The Lions are also the most popular survivor pick of the week among several experts.
The one worry is Detroit’s record against the line. They have been winning or losing close games and not covering. A 4.5-point line is still low enough that a normal Lions win should cover it.
Main danger: The Lions have not won on the road yet this season. If Arizona can turn this into a shootout, the margin could be close. The total is very high, at around 53.5 to 54.5, so we would not bet the over.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Detroit Lions to win - the better team against a struggling opponent.
- Detroit Lions -4.5 - most projections have them winning by six or more.
- Detroit Lions 24+ points - every projection we have seen has them scoring 27 or more.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Lions -4.5 at $1.90.
- Other option: Some judges like the under at 53.5, because Arizona may not score enough to help a very high total. We would only bet it with a small stake.
- SGM: Small to medium stake. All three legs need a clear Detroit win.
- Kick-off is 7:25am AEDT on Monday at State Farm Stadium.
