Best Bet
Over 42.5 total points at $1.95. New Orleans have scored at least 24 points in all four games and have given up 32 a game. Minnesota’s attack has been poor, but it should get Justin Jefferson back against one of the weakest secondaries in the league. This is a medium-strength bet, not one of our strongest, because the Vikings’ defence is very good.
The reasoning
The Vikings are 4-0, but their defence has done most of the work. They are giving up just 12.8 points a game and lead the league in pressure rate and sacks. Their attack is a different story. With Kyler Murray now at quarterback, they are scoring only 21.5 points a game and went 0-for-3 in the red zone in a 15-10 win over Miami. Three of their four games have gone under the total.
The Saints are the reason we like the over. They are 1-3 and their defence is among the worst in the league, giving up 32 points a game. They have just lost 45-24 to Atlanta on Monday night and now have a short week to get ready. Their attack keeps scoring, though. Tyler Shough gets the ball out quickly, which helps against the blitz, and New Orleans pass on about two-thirds of their plays. They are averaging 26.2 points a game.
Jefferson missed last week with an ankle injury but is expected to play. The Saints secondary ranks near the bottom of the league against top receivers, so he is a good chance to have a big day.
Minnesota are about 2.5-point favourites and $1.75 to win. We think the Vikings win, but only by a few points, so we would not lay the line. The total is the better bet.
Main danger: Minnesota’s pressure could stop the Saints early, and the Vikings may not score many points again in the red zone. If Jefferson is ruled out, the over is less attractive. The final injury reports come out on Saturday morning our time, so check them before you bet.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Over 42.5 total points - the Saints concede 32 a game and have scored 24 or more every week.
- Minnesota Vikings to win - unbeaten, with the best defence in this game, against a Saints side on a short week.
- New Orleans Saints to score 20 or more points - they have passed 20 in all four games this season.
Legs 1 and 3 work together: if the Saints score 20 or more, the Vikings only need around 23 for the over.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Over 42.5 at $1.95. If the total moves up to 44.5 or higher, the value drops.
- Second option: Vikings head to head at $1.75, but the line of 2.5 is too close for us to bet.
- SGM: Small stake only. All three legs rely on the Saints keeping up their scoring.
- Kick-off is 4:00am AEDT on Monday at the Caesars Superdome. Check Jefferson’s status before betting.
