Best Bet
Over 47.5 total points at $1.90. Dallas have one of the best attacks in the league and every one of their games has gone over the total this season. Tampa Bay come in on a short week with injuries in the secondary. This is a medium-strength bet, not one of our strongest, because the total has already started to drop.
The reasoning
The Cowboys are 4-0 to the over this season. Their offence is scoring at one of the best rates per drive of any team in the last 25 years, and their defence has given up plenty in return. At home at AT&T Stadium, Dallas games have gone over about two-thirds of the time since 2020.
Tampa Bay’s pass defence is in poor shape for a Thursday game. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison missed Week 4, and Antoine Winfield Jr. was banged up after the loss to Green Bay. That is a bad matchup against Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb on a short week.
The Buccaneers are 0-4 but have lost those games by a combined 20 points, so they have been competitive. Backup quarterback Jalon Daniels starts again with Baker Mayfield still out with a thumb injury. Daniels was not sharp passing in his first start but ran for 55 yards. Dallas have given up the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season and rank 28th in yards allowed per carry, so Daniels and running back Bucky Irving should be able to move the ball on the ground.
The Cowboys are 9.5-point favourites, and the market gives them about an 83% chance of winning. We expect Dallas to win, but nearly 10 points is a lot to give a team that keeps games close. We would rather take the Bucs with the start.
Main danger: The total opened at 47.5 and there is early money on the under, so it could drop to 46 or 47 before kick-off. If Tampa Bay run the ball a lot and keep Prescott off the field, the game could finish under. Check the line before you bet. If it drops to 47 or lower, that helps the over.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Over 47.5 total points - every Cowboys game has gone over this season, and the Bucs secondary is banged up.
- Dallas Cowboys to win - the home side are big favourites against a winless team with a backup quarterback.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 - the Bucs have lost their four games by a combined 20 points, and Dallas are weak against the run.
Legs 2 and 3 together need Dallas to win by nine points or fewer.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
- Main bet: Over 47.5 at $1.90.
- Second option: Tampa Bay +9.5 at $1.90. If the line moves out to 10.5, that is better again for this bet.
- SGM: Small stake only. The Dallas win with a margin under 10 is a narrow result to need.
- Kick-off is 11:15am AEDT on Friday. Check the injury report for the Tampa Bay cornerbacks before betting, because it comes out late on a short week.
