Best Bet
Detroit Lions to win at $1.47. We expect a close, high-scoring game, so we prefer the Lions head-to-head over giving 3.5 points. This is a sound bet, but not one of our strongest.
The reasoning
Detroit are 2-1. They beat the Saints 31-30, lost 31-41 to the Bills and beat the Jets 31-24. They have scored 31 points in every game, and their offence has a success rate of about 50 per cent, which is clearly better than Carolina’s 42 per cent.
Carolina are 1-2. They lost 37-59 to the Bears, beat the Falcons 34-3 and lost 18-21 to the Browns. They score well, at almost 30 points a game, but they also concede almost 28.
Neither defence has been good. The Lions are conceding 31.7 points a game, so this is not a game to bet on a low score. Our research sources both have Detroit winning by about three points, which is right on the 3.5 line. That is why we take the head-to-head instead.
Injuries favour the Lions slightly. Carolina are without receiver Xavier Legette and a guard, and Jalen Coker is one of four players listed as questionable. Detroit lose only a guard, with cornerback D.J. Reed questionable.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- Lions to win - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown - he has scored in all three games this season, including two doubles, and in 10 of his last 20.
- Jared Goff 250+ passing yards - he has cleared 250 yards in two of three games this season, with 269 last week, and in 13 of his last 20.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Bet the Lions head-to-head with a normal stake. If you prefer a bigger price, Over 50.5 total points at about $1.85 is worth a look, because all three Lions games have finished well over that number. The SGM is a smaller bet. All three legs rely on the Lions offence, so if Detroit start slowly, the whole multi is in trouble.
