Best Bet
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 at $1.90. This is one of our stronger NFL bets this week. The 49ers have been the better team through three weeks, they are at home, and they only need to win by three points.
The reasoning
San Francisco are 3-0. They beat the Rams 27-7, the Dolphins 35-13 and the Cardinals 36-30. They are scoring 32.7 points a game and conceding 16.7. Their offence has also been very efficient, with a success rate of about 56 per cent. Brock Purdy has not been sacked yet this season, which is a big reason the offence has stayed on schedule.
Denver are 2-1, but the numbers are less convincing. They lost 10-31 to the Chiefs in Week 1. They then came from behind to beat the Jaguars and the Rams, including recovering from 0-16 down against the Rams last week. They are scoring 20.0 points a game and conceding 23.3, so they have been outscored overall.
All three of our research sources have the 49ers winning by about six points. That is more than the 2.5-point line, so we prefer the line to the head-to-head price of about $1.64.
The main risk is Denver’s pass rush. The Broncos have eight sacks, and if they get to Purdy early this could become a low-scoring, close game. Watch the final injury news too. Mike Evans did not train early in the week, and any major late absence for San Francisco would weaken this bet.
Same Game Multi (SGM)
SGM (3 legs):
- 49ers -2.5 - our Best Bet, for the reasons above.
- Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown - he has scored three touchdowns in his last two games, including two against Miami, and he gets most of the work near the line.
- Total points under 47.5 - our sources project a total in the 46 to 48 range, and the 49ers’ defence has held two of three opponents to 13 points or fewer.
We left Mike Evans out of this multi because he has been carrying an injury this week.
Combined price: $6.80
How we’d play it
Make 49ers -2.5 your main bet with a normal stake. The SGM is a smaller bet for extra return. The under is the weakest leg, because both teams were involved in high-scoring games last week. If you want a safer multi, use just the first two legs.
